Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Another Chart for 10-Min Forex Wealth Builder

I've started tracking the 10MFWB system not long ago. The system came back to life after more than one week of inactivity by closing out one profitable winning trade today.
Check out the following chart which shows the USD/CHF trade entry bar and the targeted 100-pip.

Monday, July 28, 2008

Backtesting Metatrader History Data for FAPS, Tracer and Bogie

I managed to download more than four years of history data for the purpose of backtesting MT4 expert advisor programs such as Forex Autopilot (FAPS), Forex Tracer and Bogie-NN-v8.
Here are their results based on a starting balance of 10,000:

a) Forex Autopilot on 1 Minute (M1) 2004.06.16 - 2008.07.22

Fixed size 1 lot; Performance +378%
Remark: In 2005, the EURUSD went from trending up to a 2000-pip drop. Trend-following system such as FAPS indeed suffered a loss of -28% but bounced back strongly in the subsequent years.


Fixed size 1 lot; Performance +277%
Remark: Despite having the full historical data, I was only able to generate backtest results from April 07 and I wondered why. I am really keen to find out how it faired with FAPS in 2005. (Has anyone seen its results?)


I) Fixed size 1 lot; Performance -100%

II) Variable lot size function (0.2 - 4.7); Performance +832%
Remark: Bogie went burst in 2005. Only with risk management in placed (i.e. by using its autolot feature) , Bogie survived the tough year of 2005 and performed particularly well in 2008.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Forex Tracer EA and its Profitable Breakout Trading Pattern

Comments from mkeys :

Thanks! This is really helpful. Most sites overhype EAs or go to the other extreme and say they're all scams. It's nice to see the real-time performance comparison. One request: could you track Forex Funnel? It appears to be from the same folks who sell Tracer.

From looking at both sites (Tracer and Funnel), the Funnel's backtest looks better. It covers a much longer period and has a smaller drawdown. I've heard its real-time performance has been better, too, but can't confirm this.
Sure mkeys. Before I get to Funnel, I would like to give my further thoughts on the Forex Tracer expert advisor program.

From what i've observed so far, Forex Tracer appears to be a perfect expert advisor program to trade the Euro if you are operating from a longer time-frame perspective.

From the backtest results (as seen in the homepage), it has successfully 'traced' the EUR/USD recurrent breakout pattern (thanks hector for the chart) over the last two years. The last run-up took place in Jan - Apr 2008 which saw the price rocketed from 1.5000 to 1.6000. As a result, the EA has pocketed over 1000 pips profit during this run-up move.

And since then, the EUR/USD pair has been ranging sideways for about 2 -3 months. And thus, I am yet to see the strong performance as promised by the Tracer program. The program is probably ready for the next another significant 1000-pip move. Unfortunately, no one for sure knows when this is going to happen.

Back to the Forex Funnel EA - from its backtest results, the system appears to do well over the last 4 years consistently trading the USD/JPY market on 1-Hour timeframe. Like Forex Tracer, I will be investigating its performance in details and tracking its proftable trading pattern in the upcoming posts.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

From HectorTrader: EUR/USD Recurrent Pattern

This post was brought to you by Hector of 3SMA Forex Trading Course.
Have you noticed that EUR/USD has been moving within a recurrent pattern throughout the last two years? It seems like EUR/USD moves in 1000-pip blocks, then consolidates for three or four months and finally it pushes up another 1000-pip run before consolidating again.

Please pull your EUR/USD weekly chart so you can follow along with me: in mid-2006 price flapped sideways for few months in the 1.2xxx whereabouts. Then, in fall 2006, it popped the range and ran up into the 1.3xxx where it ranged sideways once again in mid 2007 for another 3 or 4 months. Fast forward to fall 2007 and… pop-it-goes into the 1.40xx, where once again it ranged sideways for another 3 or 4 months in late 2007/early 2008.

The last run-up took place in spring 2008 when price rocketed from 1.5000 to 1.6000, and ever since we’ve been ranging sideways for… bingo! 3 or 4 months!

What am I getting down to? well, it seems to me that EUR/USD has been following a repetitive “move-congestion-move” pattern throughout the last two years, and as of lately we’ve been toying around the 1.6000 barrier after having bounced around the 1.50′ies for quite a while… I wonder: is EUR/USD ready for another 1000-pip run to 1.7000 soon?

Screenshot attached below:

-HECTOR-

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Track Record for 10-Min Forex Wealth Builder

Here's the update to the results of trading with the 10-Min Forex Wealth Builder System.

The system has produced +140 pips closed profits so far since I started a week ago.
There are many pending orders in the coming week and I will be keeping track of the signal performance via:

>> 10-Min Forex Wealth Builder Trades List (open spreadsheet)

The spreadsheet will be updated for Scoutforex's users frequently. I will also provide a trade report at the end of a trading month.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Chart Analysis for 10-Min Forex Wealth Builder (1)

The 10MFWB system has been proven useful today. Check out the following two charts: the US dollar was seen under intense selling pressure throughout the Asian and London trading sessions against the rest of the major currencies at the start of the trading day.

The red arrow (found inside the chart) indicates the action bar where the sell order was executed for both the USD/JPY and USD/CHF trades. Two closed trades provided a total profit of 200 pips (i.e. with 2 x risk profit target). They are considered as the breakout type.

Here's the USD/JPY trade (100 pips targeted):


Here's the USD/CHF trade (100 pips targeted):

Sunday, July 13, 2008

System Review - 10 Minute Forex Wealth Builder - Get Started !

Today, I am going to examine the 10 Minute Forex Wealth Builder (10MFWB) system by Dean Saunders, which is currently ranked 4th in the popular list.

Top 5 Forex Systems (By popularity)

  1. Forex Autopilot: "Auto-pilot expert advisor system that turbo-charged profits" (Read all reviews)
  2. Forex Killer: "The work from home day-trading solution" (Read all reviews)
  3. Forex Tracer: "Expert advisor that signals and mines profits in the forex markets" (Read all reviews)
  4. 10 Minute Forex Wealth Builder: "Dean Saunders's revolutionary forex trading methods"
  5. Ace Forex System: "100% mechanical, set-and-forget, powerful system"
(Source: Clickbank)

Inside the Member Area, customers are being taught to operate two separate trading systems. I've gone through all the materials and there's no trap of information overload. You'll find easy-to-understand system manuals, straight-to-the point video instructions and some real live trade examples.

You'll learn how to to spend 10-15 minutes of your time everyday to spot the right trading setups and setting up orders. You'll be looking at the daily charts and using the simple instructions to identify breakout and swing patterns.

The 10MFWB System consists of:

End-of-day Breakout Method - which targets 100 -200 pips per trade in 8 different markets, uses a fixed reward-risk return of 2-to-1 and trades typically last 2 -4 days

Longer-term Swing Method - which targets 200 - 400 pips per trade, with a flexible reward-risk return of 2-to-1 or better and trades typically last 3 -7 days

Once you have learned how to place orders and the required stops & take profit levels, all that is left to do is go about your everyday life and check back tomorrow evening to see how the trade has developed. This trading style suits anyone who can not stay in front of the computer.

I can see that both the systems have their own technical advantages. Their methods of taking profits are realistic for that using the daily chart setup. Not only the levels can be hit the most often, but also ensure that you're already making money as long as you can achieve more than 33% winning trades.

If your psyche is to become a successful Swing Trader or End-of-Day Trader, looking to open 2-5 quality trades per week, you'll stand a good chance of doing well by simply picking the brain of Dean Saunders at this learning stage and then systematically improving your game plan as the trading progresses.

p.s I'll be doing my next review posts on forward-test results and trade analysis.

p.s.2 There is a popular forum thread which happens to discuss similar breakout technique used in 10mfwb but running on different trade entering strategies. It could be confusing at first due to the overloaded info, but definitely, worth visiting.

p.s.3 View track record of 10-Min Forex Wealth Builder

Friday, July 11, 2008

Markets Awake and Dollar Slumps Friday

European Session
No. of signal recommendations: 1
End-of-session results: AUD/USD (-20 pips)

100-pip System
Dynamic entries: No entry

The markets finally woke up after a long sleep. Today, we saw the US dollar index sank to the lowest level since 23 April. Unfortunately this time round, the "system" failed to spot those extraordinary trading opportunities. In fact, we were having the wrong technical bias the whole morning. Luckily, we didn't hold any position to buck the strong price trend. Nonetheless, an exciting day in the forex market.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Day Trading Service: Trading Report Jun' 08 (+35 pips)

Fact 1: Major-Pairs Results +35 pips; Yen-crosses Results +310 pips; 100-pip Results +825 pips
June was the month where the yen-crosses pairs rallied across the board. Simply look at these quotes:

June 1 open/ June 30 close/monthly change in term of pips:
EUR/JPY(163.78/ 167.11/ +333) ;

GBP/JPY (208.06/ 211.45/+339) ;
AUD/JPY (100.50/ 101.63/+113);
CHF/JPY (101.02/ 103.89/+287);
USD/JPY (105.24/ 106.07/+83)

We were able to take advantage of the market movements and made most of our gains from the yen-crosses pairs using both the End-of-Session and 100-Pip Systems.


Fact 2: Up Five Consecutive Months Since Inception For the End-of-Session System (Major Pairs)

Despite trading only 9 out of the possible 21 days (i.e. with Major pair signals), June was still a profitable month which produced +35 pips overall.
Profits were made from USD/CHF (+135 pips) and EUR/USD (+60 pips). However, GBP/USD was the under performer this month due to its unexpected intraday price volatility.

Fact 3: Individual Performance Overview

June has confirmed that
EUR/USD is still the biggest gainer of all since the start, while the AUD/USD and GBP/USD are the only two with negative pips.

Results summary:
EUR/USD +425 pips
USD/CHF +250 pips
USD/CAD+250 pips
USD/JPY +110 pips
AUD/USD -10 pips
GBP/USD -50 pips

Looking at the current and past stats of our day trading system, the results begin to add up and look ever more promising. And also with the latest addition of 100-pip System, I believe we are well-positioned to capitalise and make gains from both the US dollar and Japanese Yen markets in the many months ahead of us.

Last but not least, you can simply join my live forex trading sessions today and learn how to build confidence, generate a sense of control and make consistent monthly gains with Scout-Forex DTS.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Profits vs. Drawdowns for Bogie, FAPS and Tracer EAs

In general, June was a very good month for trading. There were a a lot of sizable moves intraday and overnight reactions which stirred up the forex markets. Euro (EUR/USD) was the most interesting pair to watch since it recorded its historical high back in late April. Since then, it has entered into a consolidation phase.

I have three expert advisors which all auto-trade the same EUR/USD market, i.e. Bogie, Forex Autopilot (FAPS) and Forex Tracer, but on different time periods. I will show you how they all fair in the month of June. For comparison, all three were assigned with with same account level at the start of the month. Initial deposit: $1000; Fixed lot size: 0.1 lot. Here are their end results:

1st place: Bogie-NN-v8 end balance $2434 (143.4%) Approx. +1434 pips
2nd place: FAPS end-balance $1169 (+16.9%) Approx. +169 pips
3rd place: Tracer end balance $903 (-9.7%) Approx. -97 pips

EA Performance (Jun' 08)
Bogie
Tracer
FAPS
Time period
H1
M30
M1
Stop loss used
200
250
---
Absolute drawdown (% from initial deposit)
-3.6
-24.9
-28.7
Maximal drawdown (in term of pips)<100>250
>500
Final profits (in term of pips)
+1434
-91
+169

Final remarks:

1) Bogie-NN-v8 had a very strong month in June as it outperformed others during this market phase. At many occasions, it did superbly by selling at the tops and buying at the lows.

2) Compared to previous month results, FAPS was slightly underperformed this month, but its overall results since the start of the year were impressive. June was the fifth profitable month of this year.

3) Tracer was recently launched. Unlike FAPS, it uses a fixed stop loss level of 250 pips, thus giving you the comfort of knowing its risk limit. Unfortunately, June was a volatile month which in turn resulted the EA to hit the bump twice. Despite all that, Tracer EA showed great resilience and nearly made it back to the positive.

I am not sure what July will bring, but i have high hopes on three of them. If the current trend continues, Bogie is the one to look out for. If the Euro continues to gain momentum towards the upside, FAPS and Tracer should be back to exhibiting their real strengths.