It was a tricky day - to deal or not to deal situation. And I've just decided to close one of my two long euro positions at 1.1920 which I picked up at 1.1872 - near the low of Tuesday.
This allows me to feel more comfortable holding a smaller position overnight when the big news are due out.
First up, it's a decision to be announced by BOJ, will it be a policy shift or no shift? I have to resist the temptation to second-guess the outcome... as I have no confidence holding any of the yen positions.
Then, it's the employment report on Friday... bring it on!
Wednesday, March 8, 2006
Tuesday, March 7, 2006
Deal or No Deal
It's a fine line between success and failure. You need to do every move correctly in order to reap the reward at the end of the game.Watch a suspense video clip of the currently famous game show Deal or No Deal.
An Instinctive Bet?
It was obviously another negative start for the euro this morning fueled by the recent renewed US interest rate forecasts.
The support level of 1.1900 was briefly breached and it is critical to close above this level for a good chance of price rebounding.
So, I will make my long position any minute...now waiting to get a good entry price.
The support level of 1.1900 was briefly breached and it is critical to close above this level for a good chance of price rebounding.
So, I will make my long position any minute...now waiting to get a good entry price.
Monday, March 6, 2006
Euro Loses Steam
Here's a H4 chart for tracking the Euro vs Dollar price movement using just moving averages. The market should be in consolidation mode this week, waiting for the release of employment reports on Friday.
I am not in hurry to long the market again although the interest rate outlook has generally improved. For the moment, I think 1.1950 will be a good price to recall my bullish stance.
I am not in hurry to long the market again although the interest rate outlook has generally improved. For the moment, I think 1.1950 will be a good price to recall my bullish stance.
Koizumi vs. BOJ
Japanese Yen (USD vs JPY) manages to break above 1.1700 level this morning amid ongoing policy-shift debates.
More headlines and quotes:
BOJ governor Fukui:" We are entering an important phase as the situation surrounding the economy and prices is heading toward a favorable direction."
Prime Minister Koizumi:" We can't have a situation where they shift policy, and then have to reverse course should things go wrong.''..."Since the Bank of Japan governor is a wise person, I think he will make a wise decision."
Personally, I think the policy will be adjusted at a meeting on March 9 and not April. Since there is still a lot of uncertainties out there, I will be extra cautious. My strategy will be staying with the current trend and will only enter/buy the market at price support levels .
More headlines and quotes:
BOJ governor Fukui:" We are entering an important phase as the situation surrounding the economy and prices is heading toward a favorable direction."
Prime Minister Koizumi:" We can't have a situation where they shift policy, and then have to reverse course should things go wrong.''..."Since the Bank of Japan governor is a wise person, I think he will make a wise decision."Personally, I think the policy will be adjusted at a meeting on March 9 and not April. Since there is still a lot of uncertainties out there, I will be extra cautious. My strategy will be staying with the current trend and will only enter/buy the market at price support levels .
Sunday, March 5, 2006
Stick to Your Trading Plan
American trader and hypnotherapist Robert Krausz argues that 75% of trading depends on your psychology and claims that hypnosis can be used to control your emotional state to maximise your trading performance.
However, he stresses on the importance of having a trading plan at the first place!
Here are the 5 basic tasks necessary to become a winning trader and my personal takes:
1. Develop an analytical methodology
-- For myself, I read fundamental news and run technical analysis
2. Extract a trading plan from this methodology
-- I set up short-term swing trades (1-3 days), always try to pick good entry and exit prices
3. Formulate rules for this plan including money management
-- Take profits while ahead, find the best place to get out on bad trades, not relying on stop loss
4. Back-test the plan over a long period
-- Start trading small positions and allow mistakes
5. Finally, stick to the plan
-- Having confidence and keep practicing till perfect
However, he stresses on the importance of having a trading plan at the first place!
Here are the 5 basic tasks necessary to become a winning trader and my personal takes:
1. Develop an analytical methodology
-- For myself, I read fundamental news and run technical analysis
2. Extract a trading plan from this methodology
-- I set up short-term swing trades (1-3 days), always try to pick good entry and exit prices
3. Formulate rules for this plan including money management
-- Take profits while ahead, find the best place to get out on bad trades, not relying on stop loss
4. Back-test the plan over a long period
-- Start trading small positions and allow mistakes
5. Finally, stick to the plan
-- Having confidence and keep practicing till perfect
Friday, March 3, 2006
List of Trades (27 Feb- 3 Mar)
| 03-Mar-06 | 03-Mar-06 | 11582 | buy | 11645 | 63 | |
| 02-Mar-06 | 02-Mar-06 | 11610 | buy | 11583 | -27 | |
| 02-Mar-06 | 02-Mar-06 | 17502 | buy | 17540 | 39 | |
| 02-Mar-06 | 02-Mar-06 | 17441 | buy | 17505 | 64 | |
| 02-Mar-06 | 02-Mar-06 | 13842 | buy | 13894 | 52 | |
| 01-Mar-06 | 01-Mar-06 | 17468 | buy | 17501 | 33 | |
| 01-Mar-06 | 01-Mar-06 | 13824 | buy | 13842 | 18 | |
| 01-Mar-06 | 01-Mar-06 | 11592 | buy | 11622 | 30 | |
| 01-Mar-06 | 01-Mar-06 | 13805 | buy | 13875 | 70 | |
| 28-Feb-06 | 28-Feb-06 | 17401 | buy | 17542 | 142 | |
| 28-Feb-06 | 28-Feb-06 | 13218 | sell | 13116 | 103 | |
| 28-Feb-06 | 28-Feb-06 | 13218 | sell | 13115 | 104 | |
| 28-Feb-06 | 28-Feb-06 | 17401 | buy | 17545 | 145 | |
| 28-Feb-06 | 28-Feb-06 | 17401 | buy | 17544 | 144 | |
| 27-Feb-06 | 27-Feb-06 | 17454 | buy | 17400 | -55 | |
| 27-Feb-06 | 27-Feb-06 | 17403 | buy | 17400 | -4 | |
| 27-Feb-06 | 27-Feb-06 | 17454 | buy | 17400 | -55 | |
| 27-Feb-06 | 27-Feb-06 | 13167 | sell | 13221 | -53 | |
| 27-Feb-06 | 27-Feb-06 | 13167 | sell | 13221 | -53 | |
| 760 |
Poor start Monday, but eventually ended higher...an extraordinary week perhaps!
Thursday, March 2, 2006
Observing Yen
Here are the must-know stories which are going to decide the fate of Yen in the coming days.
Story 1 [via FT]
Story 2 [via Bloomberg]
It appears that BOJ is fairly committed in curbing short-term speculative yen buying. Hence, I will be looking to enter long usd/yen marker if the closing price is continued to be held above 115.80 level.
Story 1 [via FT]
Story 2 [via Bloomberg]
It appears that BOJ is fairly committed in curbing short-term speculative yen buying. Hence, I will be looking to enter long usd/yen marker if the closing price is continued to be held above 115.80 level.
Euro To Swing Higher? (2)
Today story belongs to Euro after European Central Bank lifted its forecasts for growth and inflation, indicating a further interest rates hike this year.
I didn't expect the profit to realise so soon as I have just laid down my strategy yesterday. My another eur/jpy trade was also benefited from the gains in euro.
Wednesday, March 1, 2006
Euro To Swing Higher?
Can you foresee the Euro to trade at 1.23 level in the coming months?
[Read the comment]
Personally, I believe that today market will at least start flirting with the 1.1950 level which I think it's important. And I wish to confirm a breakout on the daily chart which was resulted by yesterday's committed market reaction. The support of this new breakout should be in the 1.1880-1.1900 region. As a short-term trader, I am willing to buy into any weakness in the price action in the next few days, hoping to cash in on the upswing movements.
Strategy: Long entry at 1.1900 - 1.1910 level
[Read the comment]
Personally, I believe that today market will at least start flirting with the 1.1950 level which I think it's important. And I wish to confirm a breakout on the daily chart which was resulted by yesterday's committed market reaction. The support of this new breakout should be in the 1.1880-1.1900 region. As a short-term trader, I am willing to buy into any weakness in the price action in the next few days, hoping to cash in on the upswing movements.
Strategy: Long entry at 1.1900 - 1.1910 level
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