Friday, February 29, 2008

Small Talk: Yen-Crosses Melt Down and Late Recovery

Yen-crosses were in meltdown mode this morning.

I am currently foreseeing (i.e. more like hoping) a late recovery. The buy-back mode seems to kick start about an hour ago.

Here is a great article to ponder over the weekend:

The World's Largest Banks Are Now Trapped

Technical Issues on ForexAutoPilot EA

Latest Update: Great news ! My site readers can now use this e-mail address to reach Marcus & support team 'faster'. In addition, the technical problem surrounding the forexautopilot EA has been resolved via the latest EA update. In the mean time, you can also check out this latest performance report from the forexautopilot trading team.

(Originally posted in my forex killer autopilot trading blog)

A lot of distress comments/e-mails lately about the ForexAutoPilot EA not firing up any trades and its lame technical support. I directed all your concerns to Andreas and here is the latest email response I managed to get from him. Below is the direct quote of his reply..

From Marcus:

About no trades in few days comment:

"Experts-Robots open trades few times a week when their internal indicators see the market conditions to open trades. They don't have to open many trades or trade every single day. The role is to make profit, not to make many trades! Also Experts dont trade on weekends because forex market is closed."Robot must work on EuroUsd M1 only!"

About Alligator Jaw error = 129 error:

"it was fixed, ask the client to redownload robot."


From Andreas:

To add, I personally started to use FAPS Forexautopilot on Demo in http://alpari.co.uk/ and made over 1500 of profit in few trades for last days, so I can personally confirm and show the record that this EA is really working and making money. Maybe not in all brokers. I attach the proof screenshot of account. Please post this screenshot to let people know. HERE.

I am not sure what is happening. Everyone please download the EA again just for sure. If still not working, simply request a new copy again from the program developer. The best I can do FOR NOW is helping you to redirect your queries or problems to Andreas. I am not paid for this kind of job though ;0) !

If you wish to obtain this new AutoPilot EA, please be warned about the lack of response from the customer support. In the mean time, I would like you to consider also my forex day trading method which can provide you with 'real' forex trading knowledge/support and allow trading within your own control.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Creating Value (Knowledge) Out of Ordinary

I know that I am not promoting 'top-notch' trading software, but I manage to add value for my readers. Sometimes, I even think my instructions are more valuable than the software. They provide you with a software tool, and I do my utmost to provide you with the right knowledge and support.

As a proof, here is a latest reader's feedback on my value (knowledge) creation, i.e. the bonus set of trading instruction/strategy which is a giveaway to you guys.

Thanks so much.
Following your method, I managed to nail 30 pips last nite (or morning US time) trading GBP/USD.

I hope I can keep this up and will let you know as I progress.

xxx, Singapore

Thanks for the good feedback. (I appreciate it, please keep them coming, good or bad.)

Back to knowledge creation, right now, I even 'own' a right channel - my day trading service along with live trading sessions and daily updates - to disseminate my humble knowledge in the forex trading arena. I like my blog (with new goals), I like trading and I am here to provide value + support to you guys ... Go blog go ! Yipee !


Wednesday, February 27, 2008

From HectorTrader: The D-day Battle

This post was brought to you by Hector of 3SMA Forex System and first posted on his site on 25 Feb 2008.

Hello everyone,

The NZDUSD I entered last Friday is still developing positively in my direction. Right now it’s retesting the key level 0.8100 which is the historical high of July 2007. In my opinion, this battle will be won or lost right there: if the bulls manage to breach through I reckon this trade will net me some good profits; if not, I will be ready to exit out at the first signals of weakness.

For the time being it’s sitting at +75 pips in profit as you can see in the screenshot below. But like I said, the level to watch now is 0.8100… Go Kiwi go!


-HECTOR-

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
(p.s. the kiwi has moved past the 0.8100 level and currently trades at 0.8188 as I type these lines.)

FYI, Hector likes to search for setups on multiple non-major crosses such as NZDJPY, GBPCAD, EURAUD and etc. Those currency pairs are quite 'exotic' to me as the spread costs on those pairs are often 4-to-7 pips wide. But, they are the perfect candidates for his 3SMA Forex System.


Q & A with Hector

Here is my recent Q & A with Hector.

me: Do you currently trade full time?

Hector: I trade full time from home around the London market schedule. Is full-time trading a reality or a myth you ask? It's indeed a reality. HOWEVER, the problem is in the expectations new traders have when it comes to trading. They think they can toss 10k to a broker and trade for a living within few months. First of all, it takes MUCH longer than that to develop a deep-enough understanding of the market. Secondly a larger account size is needed to be able to live exclusively off trading without going kamikaze at every trade.

me: Do you have any special indicators to help identify the chart patterns easily and to standardise the trade entry process?

Hector: I haven't looked for any indicator's help beyond my 3SMA trend filter indicator (and the Dashboard). For me it's just a time saver to scan through the charts every morning, that's all. Once I have spotted the trends, I proceed 100% manually from there. And finally, most new traders don't understand that psychology is the key to trading, and not any super indicator combo. Patience > MACD. Discipline > RSI. Limiting your losses > Bollinger Bands, etc. You know what I mean.

me: Well said, Hector.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

The Best of Scout-Forex on Expert Advisor Trading

The automated trading championships 2007 has showcased many innovative ideas and talents, such as the "Better" system by Olexandr Topchylo, the "Wackena" system by William Boatright. Hence, the goal of Scout-Forex in finding profitable expert advisor trading systems.


Finding Profitable EA Systems (ground zero)


Here are the "experimental" steps I took towards developing my own EAs with an aim to enrol one of them in the automated trading championship 2008. Backtesting and method reviewing, forward testing, system optimisation, measuring system performance, as well as searching for other possible system improvement.

At present, the experimental phase is nearing an end, as I had some highs and lows. Meanwhile, I have to clear some of my own "misconception about expert advisor trading as I was misled by some of my own previous thoughts. I still agree that a true goal of EA trading is to make a living (steady income) by generating consistent daily/weekly profits. However, one should not deny own dream goal to grow a small trading account size to a massive one (despite the odds stacked against it ) and in the mean time, have some adventurous fun !


Finding Profitable EA Systems (#1)

William Boatright's Bogie EA was Scout-Forex's first clear choice due its stellar performance in the championship. The EA uses a daily "trend" indicator code to determine price direction. The EA hit a bump recently when the trend (i.e. EURUSD daily) was "exhausted". The developer has since responded by introducing a neural network indicator to filter signals and be more selective on order entry.

This core trading concept also strikes a resemblance with my day trading approach. I also believe in momentum trading that the current bullish or bearish trend will continue until next day. Hence, I use several program algorithms to filter out the odd-performing currency pairs and to select only strong technical setup.


Finding Profitable EA Systems (#2)

The ForexAutopilot EA was introduced by Andreas Kirchberger and developed by Marcus Leary. After some initial hiccups, Marcus has responded by replacing the original eight EAs with one ForexAutoPilot EA. The EA is designed to scrap for small profits during intraday movement (i.e EUR/USD M1) and aim for a 100% win record by not using a stop-loss mechanism.

Despite my initial concern over the system drawdown, I soon realised that one should not doubt the system's clear intention and well-defined objective. The new Forex AutoPilot EA should perform very well in a SIDEWAY market, as long as the market (in this case, EUR/USD) is not hitting a new high or a new low, and breaking out of its long established trading range.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Zulutrade Hidden Gem: It's Not Perfect Unless It's (Almost) 100%

One of the Main Goals of this forex blog is to research plus review various possible ways/ resources that might help readers (including myself) to trade profitably in the forex market.

They could be of any trading approaches, such as Momentum Trading, Breakout Trading, News Trading, Day Trading, Fast Scalping, Signal Software Trading, Expert Advisor Trading, Signal Provider System, Short-Term Trading, Long-Term Trading, and etc.

In general, I told most of my information/stories based on my own encounter and knowledge. Or even better sometimes, I discover something thru third parties (e.g. blog readers, software developers and sellers, etc) encounter. I can assure you that the learning process and benefits are MUTUAL.


New Forex Auto-Trading Tip on Zulutrade

I just learned this from my blog reader (indirectly) over a short two-week time period, and he/she is one of my referred Zulutrade user. (He/she must have read my previous posts on Zulutrade Signal Providers). I can assure you that the current 'hottest' Zulutrade's Signal Providers are not what you normally see on the front performance page - which I called it the revamped Zulutrade Performance Leaderboard.

What I am about to introduce to you is the "Most Users Performance LeaderBoard" (see figure below) which includes signal providers which open and holding many lots at one time. After examining their track records, I can again assure you that they are REAL Money Makers for any Zulutrade Account Holder who has already subscribed to them. For this reader of mine mentioned previously, he/she uses them effectively (i.e. started with a large bankroll) and has since powered up his/her FULL-SIZE trading account by +70% in less than 2-week time !


A System Isn't Pefect Unless It's (Almost) 100% ?!


For you who have not heard of Zulutrade before, I would recommend you to open several 30-day free Demo Accounts to run the following BIG 5 SIGNAL PROVIDERS separately: 4x World, 4xMarketTrackers, CurrencyForce, The Forex Club, fx-millionaire, and also CHF/JPY-Mover. The first four are from a team of forex specialists dealing with the GBP/JPY market only. Do your due diligence before investing for real.



The systems as mentioned earlier share a resemblance with the ForexAutoPilot EA (mentioned in these previous posts) which are specifically designed to AIM for a 100% win record.

I might as well try to develop similar systems / EAs to emulate this trading concept, but need to beware of the potential system drawdown.

Technical Help: Forex AutoPilot EA

Here are some of my thoughts and technical notes about the operation of Forex AutoPilot EA.

Note 1: System Drawdown
I've just noticed this. The drawdown on the very last position seen in the first assessment (or simply click here for the Strategy Test Report) was about 400 pips using the suggested no stop-loss (SL) setting. The position has since made a strong recovery and the system has just closed out that position for a profit. Here is the latest performance report (last update: 1 September 2008).

Thus, what is the right account size to maintain the drawdown for scoring a 100% win-rate as programmed? Is the drawdown going to be a fallback of the system? These are the questions that I have no certain answers for you at present. My next task, probably, will be running more test scenarios using different SL levels to understand the system drawdown level as well as using different settings in live modes.

Note 2: Performance Optimisation
I ran some simple tests - if we use a stop loss level in the region of 400 -500 pips, we should be able to match the system's no SL setup by aiming for consecutive winning trades. Using other amount less than that probably won't cut it. The next set of questions will be - what are the improvements if we increase the take profit target to different levels? I probably leave you to find out for the moment...

Note 3: Different System Advantages
I think I might have judged William's Bogie EA unfairly by drawing up a comparison earlier as Bogie prefers a 100-pip SL on running positions. Meanwhile, the new AutoPilot EA targets a 100% win-rate using its own automated robot without setting SL.



Related posts:
Technical Help (2): Forex AutoPilot EA
Forex AutoPilot Review part 2: This Could Be The Real Deal ?!
Forex Autopilot Review: Don't Take Them (Robots) Too Seriously !

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Forex AutoPilot Review part 2: This Could Be The Real Deal ?!

Forget the previous 8 EAs. Now your main ForexAutoPilot package should come with the one and only - ForexAutoPilot.ex4, plus the two extra EAs - NFP_Pilot.ex4 and ULTRA_TREND.ex4 - in the bonus package.

Please check out these claims by the developer first.
Trading System Description:
Trading system of ForexAutoPilot advisor is based on over 20 modern forex indicators such as Alligator, Fractals, DeMarker, William's Percent Rate. The system detects good trend, confirms it using internal indicators and opens the trades to take maximum profit for you. The system does not use fixed stoploss parameter to prevent getting losing trades. ForexAutoPilot advisor monitors each open trade carefully and closes it if reaching takeprofit limit when the trade is successful. If the trade is loosing ForexAutoPilot advisor closes it using signals of its internal indicators to prevent drawdowns.

Currency and TimeFrame:
ForexAutoPilot advisor is optimized and can work only on EUR/USD pair on 1M (1 minute) timeframe.

BackTest on History
Great results in 2007-2008: 700% of profit in 1 year! Made 74,035 from 10,000 usd!
The following question immediately popped into my mind after receiving this latest ForexAutoPilot upgrade from Andreas (supposedly from Marcus).

So, what's its recent performance (Since Jan'08) even the popular Bogie EA was underperforming?

Thus, I quickly performed a backtest from Jan'08 to present and I managed to compile a Strategy Tester Report (and Graph) during this period for your viewing.

Looking at these results alone, this new AutoPilot EA could be a better deal than the original 8 EAs provided.

The forward live testing is now ON. Readers can now check back Here (last update: 1 Oct 2008) for its up-to-date PERFORMANCE.

p.s. The performance report will be updated frequently to let everybody aware of its ongoing performance.

p.s.2 Technical help, i.e. system drawdown and parameters etc. Here and Here

p.s.3. Technical issues, response from program developer Here and Here

p.s.4 Latest monthly performance Here

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Forex Autopilot Review: Don't Take Them (Robots) Too Seriously !

Below are some important advices which can be found at the member zone after purchasing the Forex Autopilot Package.



After trying out for another hour today (may be still too early to judge?) using Strategy Tester - the BACKTESTING feature of the METATRADER platform, I have some uneasy feelings about those 8 robots (EAs) with fancy names due to their backtested results !

I have HIGHLIGHTED in RED some of the so-called IMPORTANT advices (as seen in the pic. above) in order to alert users NOT to take them too SERIOUSLY !!! They (i.e. EAs, instructions, and advanced ebook) are probably good EDUCATIONAL MATERIALS with SAMPLES for helping users to learn or get used to the concept of auto-trading in Forex market using expert advisor program.

In my opinion, we probably WON'T understand how they really work or which market conditions they excel, unless undertaking HUGE TASK to find out, i.e. many man hours to observe on our own, or may be even better, ask directly for more information from the developers.

The EA in the name of ProfitStream Advisor looks impressive at first glance by generating streams of profits, i.e. booking small and consistent profits as promised. However, users could end up with a large unrealised drawdown in the most unfortunate circumstances, which do happen quite often when dealing with a volatile forex market.

Therefore, I would suggest you to learn the BACKTESTING function first before strapping the EAs onto a demo or real account. Unfortunately, no detailed instructions are given for this purpose in the the instruction PDF -the only missing info in a clear instruction guide. Here is one useful document I found for you on Strategic Tester to get you started.

P.S There is actually another two more robots being thrown as ForexAutopilot EA's bonus ! The NFP (for trading non-farm payroll job report !) and UltraTrend EAs. They have more detailed instructions than that of the 8 EAs combined. I would probably pay more attention to those two EAs for now. Please share your backtesting or any results with me if they happen to be CONSTRUCTIVE !

P.S.2 My FORWARD test results coming soon..

P.S.3 Andreas just informed me (his words) that Marcus Leary plans to introduce new EA this week with stable results instead of his current set of 8 EAs. We got RESPONSIVE actions from the program developer - via the power of blogs ! Stay tune for more updates as we will ride this EA robot-trading learning progress together, thus making sure that our money is well spent.

See also:
Forex AutoPilot Review part 2: This Could Be The Real Deal ?!
Technical Help: Forex AutoPilot EA

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Forex Killer Found Forex Autopilot EA

I received this e-mail today from Forex Killer software developer, Andreas Kichberger (or Kirchberger, typo error in his own name, may be ;O) ? ). I suppose other forex killer software users might as well get this PROMOTION newsletter as you were subscribed for the free 8-day forex killer crash courses.
From Andreas Kichberger
Subject: ForexKiller found ForexAutopilot

... A close friend of mine and very successful forex trader, Marcus Leary developed AUTOMATIC set and forget meta trader 4 plugins that .. trade your accounts automatically. The whole package consists of 8 robots that can be applied to different trading graphs and literally make you money.. while you sleep.

This software is brand new and I had to encourage him to make it open to the masses. He was very reluctant to give up his "secret" but finally he put it online:
FOREXAUTOPILOT http://www.forexautopilot.net (he really took a little inspiration from forex-killer it seems) but i really do not mind because the software is a MASTERPIECE...

OK, I got it. They are selling Expert Advisor script for the purpose of AUTOMATIC TRADING in the Metatrader platform. Since I am a KEEN user of expert advisor and I also run my own EAs, I will be live testing this 'recommended' EA myself. It costs me $89.50 (the best offer price) + $15.66 (vat) - own affiliate commission. Our SITE USERS will probably get the first-hand update regarding the forward test results of this Autopilot EA. We will JUDGE its results by then.