October 06: +451 pips

Just 3 closed trades in week 4 with a total of +79 pips. On Friday, I added a long USD/CAD position in the morning session and I saw its price swiftly reversed after the disappointed GDP report. FYI, I am still holding on to this position. Moreover, I went bottom fishing in the afternoon session and picked up another 2 long USD trades (currently one at breakeven and another in positive).

So, there is it . October. A total of 124 + 136 + 112 + 79 = 451 pips. And here is the most important stat of the month: I managed to increase the balance of my trading account by 38%.

Related post: September 06: +687 pips

Still Better Than None

It was an uneventful trading day until that instant I saw a healthy breakout across the board around 3pm. Wow, I liked that. I entered one position, which was USD/CAD short at 1.1287. I was thinking to pick up another position (such as long GBP/USD or short USD/JPY or even short USD/CHF - since they all looked good on technical charts), but the price ran away from me and I just couldn't pull the trigger soon enough.

Fine. Covered USD/CAD at 1.1260 for +27 pips. Done for the day.

A Recovery Act

As the dollar advanced this morning on speculation that Fed will highlight inflation risk, I took the chance to exit the remaining two positions from last week. I managed to book some small profits with exits at 1.2621 for +38 pips and 1.8755 for +14 pips. Considering their earlier drawdown, I was satisfied enough just to register a positive start to the week. But, looking at their current prices right now, I am second-guessing my previous actions. I am sometimes amazed/puzzled by the quick turnaround in the market sentiment and the magnitude of the corresponding retracement/correction.

In this scenario, I was in the market at the right time; but I didn't have the right mindset to excel in this trending market condition. I closed this trade (short GBP/USD) too early by not following the exit rules as I feared to lose back the hard-earned profit. On the long USD/CHF position, I didn't reenter the market as I was being conservative on the Monday morning.

3rd Week of October+ 112 pips

The third and final closed trade for the week was a long USD/JPY opened at 118.38. It managed to recoup a small loss earlier to yield +33 pips. It was actually a late entry which I entered based on to the overnight price action during the Asian session.

However, I am still holding two positions: a short GBP/USD and long USD/CHF, currently -59 and +3 . My cable position is still badly affected by the higher than expected GDP report. I will probably cut my losses by mid afternoon Monday if there is no improvement on these trades.

Oopsiee..

I found myself (in trouble) figthing the bigger trends (i.e. H4, D1) that are in place this morning. Details later.

Wednesday's Action

Finally, we had some good price actions. I managed to setup two long trades this morning simply based on the candlestick breakout, i.e. 9am candle breakout on USD/CHF and 10am candle breakout on USD/JPY. Nothing complicated, see charts below.

My entries and exits:




I liked working on these setups, even though knowing that there are important economic releases at 1.30pm. I am not afraid of trading thru the news. It is always part of my daytrading game plan - finding the good mix between the technicals and fundamentals.

So, we had the news. At first, I had a small drawdown of 22 and 17 from the two positions, and then the reversals occurred. I didn't actually follow my exit rules, but just grabbed enough pips and ran. Here are the results: +42 pips for USD/CHF and +37 pips for USD/JPY.

A positive late start.

The Real Money Game

We are peanuts compared to the real money game.

Excerpts of Robert Kiyosaki's article: The Last Days of the Dollar

The irony is that we accuse China of playing games with their money. It's more honest to say that China just isn't willing to play the game we want to play.

But an even bigger problem is looming: It seems like the rest of the world is less willing to play our money game. That's why the European Union introduced the Euro. If China creates an Asian equivalent of the Euro (which, admittedly, is a long shot) then the U.S. dollar could be in real trouble.

Different Kind of Game

This rarely happens. I haven't started trading for the week yet and it is already late Tuesday evening. The reason is that I just couldn't find a good signal during my routine trading hours. GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF markets have been trending since their openings on Sunday night, while USD/CAD is going nowhere at the moment.

This week, trading goes fundamental. There are too many major economic releases. I believe that the current trading conditions will yield best trading results for both position traders and scalpers. Not for me, I am not good at following trends as well as scalping. I am just a momentum daytrader who likes to trade the short-term breakout.

2nd Week of October +136 pips

The week has passed very quickly. I am again sitting at my morning coffee table reviewing my trading performance for the week. The overall results actually fair better than I initially thought. Although I mostly consider myself as a daytrader, I don't have the habit to review my results on the daily basis. Basically, I will just move on to the next setup or position after exiting from a previous trade. And this lasts for exactly five days (Mon-Fri). FYI, I don't have fixed trading hours - mostly I don't like to open new trades after 7 pm (UK time), sometimes I hold my positions overnight, and I usually begin my trading for the week only after 12 pm, Monday.


Back to the results: 7 trades (6 winners, 1 loser, net +136 pips).

Biggest winner: 50 pips; Biggest loser: -11 pips; Biggest drawdown: ~60

Two mistakes for the week:
1. Become too conservative: I chose to skip many good trading opportunities on Friday.
2. Exit too soon: I closed my USD/CAD position for merely +3 pips (due to a big drawdown earlier). The position actually went my way, and I could gain another 50 - 60 pips only if I chose to hold for another 5 mins.

1st Week of October +124 pips

A late update. I was up a total of 124 pips last week from only seven positions (5 winners, 1 loser and 1 even) . I found myself trading less positions these days, due to the constraint of my full-time job. The biggest winner was at +34 pips and the loser was -8 pips. But I am still committed to keep this record going.

Questions

Here are some questions which are posted to me in the comment section recently.

Q: Do you watch other pairs to see what they're doing (meaning if they are near support/resistance or have broken out of them already)?

A: Yes, I always monitor other currency pairs to obtain an overall picture of the underlying market strength. For my case, it is the strength of the US dollar since the currency pairs which I normally trade are USD/CAD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and GBP/USD. I pay more attention to price action (i.e. breakout of candle sticks) rather than support/resistance level.

Q: I noticed that you did not include EUR/USD in your list of traded pairs. Is there a reason for this?

A: Yes. Basically, EUR/USD is a slower moving currency pair with a narrower daily pip range when compared to other major dollar pairs. Its movement is mostly influenced by the imminent economic releases and the latest fundamental development. It seldom takes lead when come to technical breakout. You can trade USD/CHF pair instead as it tends to be negatively correlated to EUR/USD. Personally, I have more success trading the USD/CHF pair and therefore from my past experience, I don't recommend EUR/USD as the beginner's trading currency pair.

Q: I like to know your thought process on position entries.

A: I have tried to scalp using the minute charts but found it way too difficult and time-consuming. With the lack of strict discipline, the tendency of misreading the market directions and then messing things up is great.

Now, I only enter my positions using the hourly chart. I try to spot a small breakout in price at hourly interval but will not rush into a position if the price has already rallied too much. I would rather wait for a good entry level in other charts that I monitor.

Send in your questions and I will try my best to answer them.

September 06: +687 pips

4th Week of September +253 Pips

I was extremely busy last week but still managed to find some times to trade. I reversed to a dollar bullish stance and it worked. Here are the summary of my trades (10 trades, 9 winners, 1 breakeven):

Monday: No trade

Tuesday:
Exit short GBP/USD at 1.8974 for +46 pips
Exit short GBP/USD at 1.8940 for +20 pips
Exit long USD/JPY at 116.94 for +47 pips

Wednesday:
Exit long USD/JPY at 117.48 for +30 pips

Thursday:
Exit long USD/JPY at 117.48 for breakeven
Exit long USD/CHF at 1.2454 for +14 pips
Exit long USD/CHD at 1.2482 for +17 pips

Friday:
Exit long USD/CAD at 1.1140 for +32 pips
Exit long USD/CHF at 1.2513 for +35 pips
Exit long USD/CAD at 1.1186 for +12 pips

Hence, here are the pips earned for the month of September:
Week 1: +269
Week 2: -94
Week 3:+259
Week 4: +253

Grand total: +687 pips (vs August 06: +622 pips)