Monday, December 31, 2007

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Site traffic:
10,000 unique visitors per month
25,000 page views per month
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#AD3 (Logo/Square banner) (e.g. 120x 60): $90/month. Ads will be placed at the top of the left column . No rotation on this spot.


#Review Post: $250. I would also love to review your service/products. The post will stay on the frontpage for at least 24 hours. And your post will be staying in Scoutforex.com permanently. Click here for my previous reviews.


Feel free to contact me with any questions or to purchase ad.

A New Year, A New Treat

I just bought myself a new desktop system to take over the task of automated trading from now on. Due to the increasing need for speed and efficiency, I have decided to retire my old companion although it has proven to be reliable running around the clock 24/5 without failure for the past two months.

My latest addition - HP Pavilion Slimline AMD 64 duo core 2.3 GHz 2048Mb RAM on Window Vista


My trading station - Dell Dimension Intel Duo Core 2.8GHz 1024 Mb RAM on Window XP


My old companion - Fujitsu laptop Intel Pentium III 833 MHz 256 Mb RAM on Window ME

Sunday, December 30, 2007

There Must Be a Better Trading System Out There

Since the start of this blog, I was determined to find a better and consistent way to trade the forex market. After developing my own expert advisor (EA) system about two months ago and trading it live with a real money account, I was able to learn so much about the automated trading than never before. I absolutely love the idea of mechanical system that takes the stress out of trading, automates everything, and makes gains for you. At present, I still prefer trading this new way.

The Potential of Automated Systems
Just recently, there was so much buzz created over the success of EA automated trading championships 2007. We have seen many excellent performances from the EA developers and I really admire their innovative works and talents, such as the "Better" system by Olexandr Topchylo, the "Wackena" system by William Boatright and many more. If possible, I would like to learn from such systems in order to further myself with more knowledge in this field, as I know that my EA is definitely not quite up to the mark yet.

As mentioned by CK, a keen EA user, understanding how an EA works is key for anyone who intends to auto-trade with it. It's important to know the strengths and weaknesses of the EA. The investor should know when to let the system ride out the storm on a losing trade, and also when to manually intervene to cut the losses short. I couldn't agree more with him and also believe that the best way to find out about the potential of a EA system is thru own testing experience.

Finding Cash-Cow Systems
As one of my goals of 2008, I am going to present myself with a new task of finding profitable expert advisor trading systems which are capable of producing good returns for myself and my readers. Most importantly, it is my intention to compare my own EA performance with other systems out there, as part of my preparation for the automated championship in October 2008. Hence, I am going to be open and will be performing live tests on publicly available EAs which I could get my hand on at present as well as in the future.

Hopefully through this new challenge, we can truly uncover the real gems of the EA trading systems or perhaps the real money generators?

Wednesday, December 26, 2007

ScoutForex dot com: 10 Goals for 2008

As many of you probably know, I started my forex blog back in March 2005 just to share my thoughts and trading methodologies as I was learning through my forex trading experience. There were no big plans for it and there were also no significant trading results to be proud of even till today. Nonetheless, the last few months of 2007 went beyond my own expectations and it could possibly be an important turning point for this blog as well as my trading career.

This time last year, I was in total disarray and a bit of shock after some trading setbacks. I spent many months afterwards just to regroup and reorganise myself. Still, I found myself without a clear direction and many of my goals seemed to be out of reach at time. Therefore, I am sure that, having outlined my goals for 2008, it should help me to focus my attention and prioritise my activities in the new year.

Below you will find my 10 goals for 2008 which are to be achieved by the end of the year.

1. generate $5000 in monthly trading profits
2. generate $2500 in monthly site incomes
3. reach 500 RSS subscribers (currently at 100 140 170 )
4. reach 1500 daily page views (currently at 300 940)
5. enter the Alexa top 100,000 (currently at 584,309 285,724 259,694 )
6. keep writing good contents for readers
7. review one new forex trading strategy every month
8. compare their trading results every month
9. research one new forex topic every month
10. prepare one short forex trading course every month

Finally, a big thank you to all the readers and supporters of this blog. Hope you will all achieve your goals in 2008.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

My Expert Advisor Trading Statistics

100 trades completed so far (52 Winners, 48 Losers)
Day count: 21 trading days (~1 month since start)

Trade Breakdown:
USD/CAD +110 pips (9W 6L)
USD/CHF +95 pips (8W 3L)
USD/JPY +86 pips (7W 3L)
AUS/USD -97 pips (13W 18L)
GBP/USD -123 pips (15W 18L)

Total pips so far: +71 pips
Total P/L so far: +$10.03

Detailed & up-to-date results can be found in my trade history page.

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Q & A with Andreas Kirchberger

Exactly one week ago, forex killer software developer Andreas Kirchberger stumbled upon my site and left me with the following comment:
"Hi thanks for the blog.
Do you trade only using FK signals or use different system combinations? Please reply to andreaskirchb AT googlemail.com"
Hence, I replied to him in e-mail and also took the opportunity to summarise our queries so far and forward them to Andreas. Below are some answers I managed to obtain from him. You might be interested in this.

Q. The latest software algorithm appears to be different from the original version. I am able to understand the basic concept of the initial algorithm but not the latest one. If you run both software at the same time, sometimes they do give conflicted signals. Are they based on the same concepts or may be you have changed the probability calculations (odds) for buy/sell signal to be issued? (view my initial concerns here)

A. First version uses combination of "average and RSI algorithms", new one - neuro system algorithm. That's why signals can differ sometimes.

Q. The latest long term signal algorithm. It seems far too troublesome for us to handpick the last 10 peaks and troughs. What is the justification/purpose and its risk reward ratio when compared to the original short term algorithm?

A. You can use them both (short and long term algorithm) in combination.

Q. The results seen on your forex killer site (with over 3000 pips for 2006,and over 2500 pips for 2007 so far) is based on FK signals on what time frame, trading hours and holding durations as well as what stop loss/target levels used?

A. The results on site are average results based on trading 3 major currencies.

Q. What is your recommended trade exit strategies for FK positions as there is no detailed instruction given?

(No answer given by him yet, however, I have tried to provide my own read of the FK exit strategies here)

Q. According to one of my reader, the algorithm appears to be unstable and can change if the calculation is repeated. Will you update your software again in near future?

A. About problem of one of the readers. Yes, I know about this weakness in neuro algorithm and we are working on it. (Updated 05-02-08: We have fixed the problem and also new DealBook360 format loading in FK.)


Although Andreas has not provided us with detailed answers, I know that he is constantly tweaking the software for maximum efficiency (hence, the surprised release of an updated version in last month). Thus, the claim "free software updates for life" on his sales site appears to hold true.

I appreciate his continuous efforts on further improving the signal software product. He has managed to present us with a unique analytical software tool which is developed based upon his own understanding of the currency market.

In summary, I believe that the potential of forex killer signal software is always there, but it is up to us to realise ourselves. Last week, the signal software has produced the biggest weekly gain for me since the start. Nevertheless, I shall press him for more information and knowledge from time to time.

Click here for more Q&A.

Friday, December 14, 2007

EA Back on Track ? (2)

My expert advisor trading has moved back into profit on day 19 ! Here is my equity curve (also learning curve too) since the start. I am absolutely thrilled that "we" (my EA and I together) managed to recoup all trading losses (as much as -51% drawdown) incurred last month.



*Update: More good news. I have added one more profitable trade before the close of Friday. Hence, I am currently up +426 pips for the month of December, and up +112 pips since the start.

I hope to grow my account balance to around $1500 (from the initial deposit of $1031) before applying the money management algorithm. From there onwards, I am willing to risk 3-4% on each trade.

Related post:
EA Back On Track? (1)

Thursday, December 13, 2007

A Simple Trend-Exploitation & Forex-Killer Day Trading Strategy

System Overview

Entering a market either LONG or SHORT will be based on the combined use of a daily market sentiment indicator and a trading signal processing software. The technical indicator will provide quantification of trending behavior over an intermediate-term time frame.

When implemented properly, it is a versatile swing trading strategy aimed at exploiting the underlying market strength (trend) and further price breakout.

This day trading strategy has produced some promising results since first used in Dec' 07. Most importantly, it is easy to understand and operate.

Forex-Killer Day Trading Strategy

1) First, check the moving average of closing prices of all major currency pairs on a daily chart (i.e. by using 5, 10 or 20 Simple Moving Average trend lines), to find out the price is either trending up or down for the USD dollar.
2) Obtain price correlation among all major currency pairs to determine an overall bias to either go long or short on the USD dollar on the day. This is the first condition filter.
3) Then, generate forex killer signals for all major pairs using shorter time periods (e.g. H1, M30 or M15).
4) When the forex killer signals are in line with the daily trend bias, enter the market long or short accordingly depending on the currency pair you choose to trade.
5) Stops must be in place whenever a condition disappears. You may follow the stop levels as suggested by the forex killer software, or you can choose to optimise your own risk reward ratio.
6) This strategy produces good results with 30 minutes and 1 hour closing prices, and with 40-60 pips return for a position.

In short, this simple strategy allows you to assess the underlying market strength (in this case, the US dollar strength) and filter out the out-of-sync currency pairs. Simply familiarise yourself with the forex killer software instructions, and apply this strategy as an analytical method to assist trading and improve winning chances.

The Day Trading Approach

We trade and monitor both LONDON OPENING and NEW YORK PRE-OPENING sessions which happen to be the most active trading hours for the forex market.

On the technical side:
The indicator of the US-Dollar market sentiment will be used to setup signals on the MAJOR CURRENCY pairs, while the indicator of the Japanese-Yen market sentiment will be used on the YEN CROSSES pairs.

On the fundamental side:
It is important to make sense of the latest economic news development. Typically, this strategy can produce good instant results with the forex killer signals on 30-min and 1-hour data. Return of 40 – 60 pips is possible in less than 2-3 hours or even higher sometimes when the news comes out IN TUNE with the sentiment data during the trading period.


Live Trading Service

Based on our advanced trade selection and entry system, the live trading service will provide registered users with all the technical data as well as real-time signal recommendations. Live price monitoring will be performed on all 'tradable' currency pairs every trading day.

The signal performance will be updated every hour too. In addition, economic news alerts will be issued in real time to give users heads-up about their potential impact on their running positions.

You can simply logon to our member area when free as we have prepared everything to help you enter the forex market with pre-knowledge and confidence. There are even LIVE signals for your own reference or to follow.


System Advantages

Note that this day trading approach can also provide versatility. Based on our technical indicator, users may use their own trading software/method to generate trade entries at any hours that suit them.

The forex killer signal software is currently chosen to all users simply due to its EASY operation and effectiveness to further improve the odds to be profitable. Here is its track record along with this day trading approach to generate instant good return on forex positions.


Follow This Day Trading Approach:

As a Service Subscriber, you will have immediate access to:

# Special Day Trading Template for Use on 10 Currency Pairs
# The Current Technical Market Data of US Dollar and Japanese Yen
# Technical Trading Bias and Live Update on Key Economic News Releases
# Up to 5 Signal Recommendations Covering London, New York and Late Trading Sessions Every Day
# Full Details on This Day Trading Approach



Start Your Subscription Today for just $55 a month

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Mid Week Update: Expert Advisor Trading Summary

This week so far:
(15 Trades, 8 Winners, 7 Losers +71 pips)

This month so far:
(38 Trades, 25 Winners, 13 Losers, +196 pips)

My expert advisor was just able to eke out a gain for this week despite suffering four trading losses in the last 2 trading days. Two losses came from the widen spreads and price volatility seen minutes before the US interest rate announcement. They just happened to be stopped out by a margin of 10-15 pips and those positions were going to be big winners. The other two trading losses were from today's GBP/USD short positions. The price action was simply too wild to handle.

Saturday, December 8, 2007

EA Back on Track ? (1)

My expert advisor trading has produced some positive results for the past two trading days (at day 13 and 14). And finally, it shows some real signs of recovery from its lacklustre performance since the start of the system.

Attempt to Score Big Winners
4 closed trades today and only 4 minor winners, totalling 62 pips. I have decided not to intervene the system by booking early profits myself. Plus today is US non-farm payroll day. I really wanted to see how my system performed under extreme market conditions. However, all my positions failed to reach their set price targets. They all at one point reached more than 40 pips but eventually stopped out at 10-20 pips on the plus side as the new trailing stop algorithm played its part. There are two new open positions to be carried over to next week. Currently, with a running profit of 80 pips from the two positions and at least 30 pips are guaranteed.

At present, I am still pondering over the system profit-taking strategy. Which is more reasonable in the long run, 1R or 2R profits? And should I intervene to take profits at time?

Thursday, December 6, 2007

40-pip Wild Spread During UK Interest Rate Announcement

12:00 pm GBP Surprise rate-cut to 5.5% from 5.75%

This is the first time I've seen such a wide spread in my EA (metatrader) trading platform. To make matter worse, my EA was actually holding a short sterling position into the announcement. The trade entry was 2.0278. A newly modified trailing stop algorithm was just in place to replace the last (i.e not so effective) one.

Bang! There came the news and my short position survived amid price volatility and wide spread. Eventually, it hit my price target of 2.0193 for a tidy 85-pip profit.

Definitely an interesting and exciting episode in my EA trading experiment so far.

Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Trading Review 12-04-2007

It was a great trading day. In fact, it was the biggest one-day gain for both my H1 swing strategy and expert advisor trading since the start. 8 trades and 8 winners. I am pretty sure this is the first time I experienced such a long winning streak. Hope it continues.

H1 Swing Trading +146 pips
2 European session trade entries and 1 news trade. The results could still be better, but I exited too soon on all three.

EA Expert Advisor Trading + 195 pips
On a sour note, my EA was running into more trouble yesterday when it lost another 182 pips on 5 trade entries. Since the start, I noticed that my EA was particularly good at entering trades but quite often failed to hold on to its sizeable gains. At time, I wanted to intervene but I refused. It took me some time to realise that my trailing stop strategy was not an effective one. Since my EA fund is in 'critical' status, I decided on a drastic measure today to intervene the system by taking profits on its behalf when I saw fit. Better late than sorry and it worked well today.

My EA Trade History

December 2007

Entry Date/DayCurrencyB/SR
LotPips
P/L
2007-11-30 (10)
AUS/USDB
-1
0.1-30
-$30
2007-11-30
GBP/USDS
-1
0.1-40-$40
2007-11-29USD/CADS-10.1-85-$84.77
2007-12-03AUS/USDB
0.43
0.1
13
$13
2007-12-03GBP/USD
S
-10.1-40-$40
2007-11-30 (11)
USD/JPY
S
0.67
0.157
$51.70*
2007-12-03GBP/USD
S
1
0.140
$40*
2007-11-30USD/CHF
S
0.5
0.143
$38.30*
2007-12-04GBP/USD
S
0.88
0.135
$35.00*
2007-12-04AUS/USDS
0.27
0.0420
$8
2007-12-05 (12)
USD/JPYS
-10.1-85-$76.78
2007-12-05GBP/USDB
-10.1-40-$40
2007-12-05AUS/USDS
0.43
0.113
$13
2007-12-05 (13)
USD/JPYS
-10.1-40-$36.03
2007-12-05AUS/USDS
-10.1-30-$30
2007-12-05USD/CHFB
1.98
0.179
$69.78*
2007-12-05GBP/USDS
1.18
0.147
$47*
2007-12-06GBP/USD
S
2.13
0.1
85
$85
2007-12-05USD/CAD
B
0.53
0.1
21
$20.67
2007-12-06 (14)
GBP/USDS
0.53
0.1
21
$21
2007-12-07AUS/USD
S
0.57
0.120
$20
2007-12-06USD/CHF
B
0.25
0.110
$8.85
2007-12-07GBP/USD
S
0.28
0.111
$11
2007-12-06 (15)
USD/JPY
B
0.55
0.122
$19.95
2007-12-07AUS/USD
S
1.2
0.142
$42
2007-12-10AUS/USD
S
-1
0.1-35-$35
2007-12-10USD/CAD
B
-1
0.1-40-$39.93
2007-12-10AUS/USD
S
-1.09
0.1-38-$38
2007-12-10USD/CAD
B
2.13
0.185$84.03
2007-12-10 (16)
USD/JPY
B
0.53
0.121
$18.78
2007-12-11USD/CADB
0.8
0.132
$31.68
2007-12-11AUS/USD
S
-1
0.1-35-$35
2007-12-11USD/CAD
B
-10.1-40-$39.84
2007-12-12 (17)
GBP/USD
S
-10.1-40-$40
2007-12-11USD/JPY
B
1.45
0.158
$52.11*
2007-12-11USD/CHF
B
0.25
0.110
$8.84
2007-12-12GBP/USD
S
-1.030.1-41-$41
2007-12-12AUS/USD
S
2
0.1
70
$70
2007-12-13 (18)
USD/CHF
B
1.25
0.1
50
$43.92*
2007-12-13AUD/USD
S
0.31
0.1
11
$11
2007-12-14 (19)
GBP/USDS
0.25
0.1
10$10
2007-12-13USD/CAD
B
-10.1
-40-$39.33
2007-12-13USD/CHF
B
1.53
0.1
61
$53.18*
2007-12-14USD/JPY
B
1.75
0.1
70$61.87*
2007-12-14AUS/USD
B"
-10.1
-35-$35
2007-12-14GBP/USD
S
1.13
0.1
45$45*
2007-12-14USD/JPY
B
1.45
0.1
58
$51.08*
2007-12-17 (20)
GBP/USDS
-10.1-40-$40
2007-12-14USD/CADB
0.53
0.121
$20.61
2007-12-17 (21)
AUS/USDS
-10.1-35-$35
2007-12-18GBP/USDS
-1.18**0.1-47-$47**
2007-12-17USD/CADB
1.5
0.1
60
$59.37*
2007-12-17USD/JPY
B
0.25
0.1
10
$8.83
2007-12-18AUS/USDS
2
0.1
70
$70
2007-12-19 (22)
GBP/USD
S
0.25
0.110
$10
2007-12-18USD/CHF
B
0.55
0.122
$19.08
2007-12-18USD/CAD
B
-10.1-40-$39.86
2007-12-19AUS/USD
S
1.1
0.144
$44*
2007-12-20 (23)
GBP/USD
S
1
0.1
40
$40*
2007-12-20 (24)AUS/USDS
-10.1
-35-$35
2007-12-20USD/CHF
B
-10.1
-40-$34.72
2007-12-20USD/CAD
S
0.25
0.07^
10
$7.01
2007-12-21USD/JPY
B
1.53
0.1
61
$53.62*
2007-12-21AUS/USDS
0.29
0.1
10
$10
2007-12-24 (25)
AUS/USDS
-10.1
-35-$35
2007-12-21GBP/USD
S
1.7
0.1
68
$68*
2007-12-24 (26)
GBP/USDS
-1.250.1
-50-$50
2007-12-24 (27)USD/JPY
B
0.28
0.1
11
$9.62
2007-12-27USD/CHF
B
-10.1
-40-$34.92
2007-12-26USD/CADS
0.25
0.11`
10
$11.20
2007-12-27USD/JPY
B
-10.1
-40-$35.14
2007-12-28 (28)
USD/CHF
B
-10.1
-40-$35.18
2007-12-27AUS/USD
S
0.42
0.1
21
$21
2007-12-28USD/CAD
S
0.25
0.1
10
$10.21
2007-12-28USD/CHF
B
-2.380.1**
-95-$84.38
2007-12-31 (29)
GBP/USD
S
-10.09`
-40-$36
2007-12-31USD/CAD
S
-10.1`
-40-$40.64
2007-12-31AUS/USD
B
-10.11`
-35-$38.50
2007-12-31USD/CHFS
-10.07`
-40-$24.77
2007-12-31USD/JPY
S
0.28
0.07`
11
$6.88
*Intervention to book profits "Trialing of new system **Using supp/resist levels for SL ^3% risk per trade `4% risk per trade

This Month
Pips Total P/L Total
+223
$178.32

Since Start
Pips Total P/L Total
-91-$123.54

Performance Overview
USD/JPY +129 pips (10W 4L) +214 pips this month
USD/CAD +60 pips (12W 8L) -36 pips
AUS/USD -57 pips (18W 20L) -9 pips
GBP/USD -95 pips (18W 20L) +34 pips
USD/CHF -128 pips (10W 8L) +20 pips

Daily Results
Day 10: 5 Trade -182 pips Woes continue (12-3)
Day 11: 5 Trades +195 pips Intervened to book profits (12-4)
Day 12: 3 Trade -112 pips
Day 13: 6 Trades +162 pips BOE interest rate announcement winner (12-6)
Day 14: 4 Trades +62 pips Failed to score big winners (12-7)
Day 15: 6 Trades +36 pips A winning streak of 10 wins in a row ended (12-10)
Day 16: 4 Trades -22 pips Spoiled by US interest rate annoucement (12-11)
Day 17: 5 Trades +57 pips GBP/USD wild swings (12-12)
Day 18: 2 Trades +61 pips
Day 19: 7 Trades +169 pips Mistake made in new AUS/USD system (12-14)
Day 20: 2 Trades
-19 pips
Day 21:
5 Trades +58 pips 100 closed trades (12-18), also for two days in a row, my GBP/USD stops were hunted
Day 22: 4 Trades +36 pips Sell-off in GBP/USD, only pocketed 10 pips (12-19)
Day 23: 1 Trade +40 pips Tricky pound, made only 1R instead of 2R (12-20)
Day 24: 5 Trades +6 pips
Day 25: 2 Trades +33 pips
Day 26: 1 Trade -50 pips
Day 27: 4 Trades -59 pips USD dollar fell sharply on weak durable goods (12-27)
Day 28: 4 Trades
-104 pips
Day 29: 5 Trades -144 pips Tough end to a good month (12-31)

View November 2007 Trade History

Monday, December 3, 2007

Trading on News Releases

End of a trading day. I had some success in trading news reports today. You get all the excitement when you trade ahead of important economic news releases. Your trading seems to found a purpose. You want to beat the market crowd by having the best possible price before the news event. After the news, you immediately see the markets tick, swing or even change direction completely within a matter of time. It is easy, painless and straight forward. You get paid off well in the end if your risk-reward ratio is right and rational.

And I wish every trading day was like today! Hence, I will be watching very closely the following major economic events for the rest of this week.

Major economic events this week
Tuesday - Dec 4
2.00 pm CAD Interest Rate Statement
Wednesday - Dec 5
1.15 pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Thursday - Dec 6
12.00 pm GBP Interest Rate Statement
12.45 pm EUR Interest Rate Statement
3.00 pm CAD Ivey PMI
Friday - Dec 7
12.00 pm CAD Employment Change
1.30 pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change

Sunday, December 2, 2007

November Blog Income Report

It’s the start of the month and let's find out how much ScoutForex dot Com made last month from blogging.

The blog made $302.94 in October 2007 as a monetized blog. And here are the results:

Total Blog Income For November 2007: $620.00 (Increased by 104%)
  • Text Link Ads: $17.75
  • Google Adsense: $37.65
  • Affiliate Commissions: $564.60
The affiliate program has gone from strength to strength last month, simply due to to its high demand and online popularity.

Blog traffic has increased to 9,111 page views from 3,296 visitors, according to Statcounter. The site has received a spike in traffic never seen before.

However, if you take the blog income and divide it by the blog page views, you get a site wide eCPM of $68.04. That means this blog makes almost $70 every time 1,000 pages are viewed. It works out to $0.07 per page.

Although the revenue from Google Adsense was increased by 88%, it was still underperforming in general. I should not deny the fact that the ads are not well-received amongst my site visitors. Hence, I am thinking of removing the ads for good and looking elsewhere for other fixed monthly income. Perhaps, site sponsors will be invited in near future.

So, as a side project of mine, check out my new site from time to time for more info on stepping into probloggers' footsteps to make money online through blogging.

Saturday, December 1, 2007

End of Trading Month

It is the end of the trading month. The net results for the month of November (in ascending order):

1) Expert Advisor Trading: -314 pips
2) Signal Software Trading: -103 pips
3) Hector's 3SMA Trading: +278 pips

To be honest, I am not discouraged by the poor start of my first ever expert advisor trading. I am only regretting that I have not started the venture earlier. There are actually more to learn and master at this stage and I really enjoy the challenge. It is an ambitious project but it is totally doable.

I am also back into swing trading this month. The arrival of signal software has resparked my interests in swing trading strategy, which has been a success to me in the past. I think I could achieve more this time round with more hindsight and self-discipline.

Last but not least, bravo Hector. He pulled it off again. I totally agree with him that November was a difficult trading month due to the unusual market conditions caused by the carry 'bears' and 'cows'. I will definitely try harder this month.