Backtesting Metatrader History Data for FAPS, Tracer and Bogie

I managed to download more than four years of history data for the purpose of backtesting MT4 expert advisor programs such as Forex Autopilot (FAPS), Forex Tracer and Bogie-NN-v8.

• Metatrader History Center (Alpari)
  
• Data Importing and Converting Tutorial for Quality Backtesting
  

Here are their results based on a starting balance of 10,000:

a) Forex Autopilot on 1 Minute (M1) 2004.06.16 - 2008.07.22

Fixed size 1 lot; Performance +378%

Remark: In 2005, the EURUSD went from trending up to a 2000-pip drop. Trend-following system such as FAPS indeed suffered a loss of -28% but bounced back strongly in the subsequent years.

b) Forex Tracer on 30 Minutes (M30) 2004.06.18 - 2008.07.28

Fixed size 1 lot; Performance +277%

Remark: Despite having the full historical data, I was only able to generate backtest results from April 07 and I wondered why. I am really keen to find out how it faired with FAPS in 2005. (Has anyone seen its results?)

c) Bogie-NN-v8 on 1 Hour (H1) 2004.06.22 - 2008.07.25 for (I) and (II)

I) Fixed size 1 lot; Performance -100%

II) Variable lot size function (0.2 - 4.7); Performance +832%

Remark: Bogie went burst in 2005. Only with risk management in placed (i.e. by using its autolot feature) , Bogie survived the tough year of 2005 and performed particularly well in 2008.

Forex Tracer EA and its Profitable Breakout Trading Pattern

Comments from mkeys :

Thanks! This is really helpful. Most sites overhype EAs or go to the other extreme and say they're all scams. It's nice to see the real-time performance comparison. One request: could you track Forex Funnel? It appears to be from the same folks who sell Tracer.

From looking at both sites (Tracer and Funnel), the Funnel's backtest looks better. It covers a much longer period and has a smaller drawdown. I've heard its real-time performance has been better, too, but can't confirm this.

Sure mkeys. Before I get to Funnel, I would like to give my further thoughts on the Forex Tracer expert advisor program.

From what i've observed so far, Forex Tracer appears to be a perfect expert advisor program to trade the Euro if you are operating from a longer time-frame perspective.

From the backtest results (as seen in the homepage), it has successfully 'traced' the EUR/USD recurrent breakout pattern (thanks hector for the chart) over the last two years. The last run-up took place in Jan - Apr 2008 which saw the price rocketed from 1.5000 to 1.6000. As a result, the EA has pocketed over 1000 pips profit during this run-up move.

And since then, the EUR/USD pair has been ranging sideways for about 2 -3 months. And thus, I am yet to see the strong performance as promised by the Tracer program. The program is probably ready for the next another significant 1000-pip move. Unfortunately, no one for sure knows when this is going to happen.

Back to the Forex Funnel EA - from its backtest results, the system appears to do well over the last 4 years consistently trading the USD/JPY market on 1-Hour timeframe. Like Forex Tracer, I will be investigating its performance in details and tracking its proftable trading pattern in the upcoming posts.

Profits vs. Drawdowns for Bogie, FAPS and Tracer EAs

In general, June was a very good month for trading. There were a a lot of sizable moves intraday and overnight reactions which stirred up the forex markets. Euro (EUR/USD) was the most interesting pair to watch since it recorded its historical high back in late April. Since then, it has entered into a consolidation phase.

I have three expert advisors which all auto-trade the same EUR/USD market, i.e. Bogie, Forex Autopilot (FAPS) and Forex Tracer, but on different time periods. I will show you how they all fair in the month of June. For comparison, all three were assigned with with same account level at the start of the month. Initial deposit: $1000; Fixed lot size: 0.1 lot. Here are their end results:

1st place: Bogie-NN-v8 end balance $2434 (143.4%) Approx. +1434 pips
2nd place: FAPS end-balance $1169 (+16.9%) Approx. +169 pips
3rd place: Tracer end balance $903 (-9.7%) Approx. -97 pips

EA Performance (Jun' 08)	Bogie	Tracer	FAPS
Time period	H1	M30	M1
Stop loss used	200	250	---
Absolute drawdown (% from initial deposit)	-3.6	-24.9	-28.7
Maximal drawdown (in term of pips)	<100>	250	>500
Final profits (in term of pips)	+1434	-91	+169

Final remarks:

1) Bogie-NN-v8 had a very strong month in June as it outperformed others during this market phase. At many occasions, it did superbly by selling at the tops and buying at the lows.

2) Compared to previous month results, FAPS was slightly underperformed this month, but its overall results since the start of the year were impressive. June was the fifth profitable month of this year.

3) Tracer was recently launched. Unlike FAPS, it uses a fixed stop loss level of 250 pips, thus giving you the comfort of knowing its risk limit. Unfortunately, June was a volatile month which in turn resulted the EA to hit the bump twice. Despite all that, Tracer EA showed great resilience and nearly made it back to the positive.

I am not sure what July will bring, but i have high hopes on three of them. If the current trend continues, Bogie is the one to look out for. If the Euro continues to gain momentum towards the upside, FAPS and Tracer should be back to exhibiting their real strengths.

Forex Tracer Automated Trading and Signalling EA

The search for profitable automated trading systems is on once again. I just received this e-mail from one of my readers yesterday.

Hello Lloyd,

Your blog site has helped me in a great deal to understand how Forex market works and forex software.

I'm a three-month forex beginner who has studied the market by myself and has practiced on a demo account. I have lately started to think to purchase forex software and give it a shot. After I did my research, my candidate for the software narrowed down to either Forex Autopilot or Forex Killer. However, late last week, I happened to discover a new software called Forex Tracer.

The reason I'm mentioning this new software is that they show the same format as your Stratefy Tester Report of Forex Autopilot. I've never seen such a report from other software sales letters. Forex Tracer's report started from June 30, 2006 thru May 23, 2008. Their winning ratio is 94% and the modeling quality is 90%. The software looks very attractive to me

If possible, would you take a look at Tracer's page and let me know about your opinion about the software? I'm thinking if it's worth a try or better to buy Forex Autopilot.

Forex Tracer is, of course, another Expert Advisor script written for the purpose of automated trading in the Metatrader platform. Since I am a keen user of expert advisor systems and a developer of my own EA system, I would also like to test this EA myself. I believe I did a good job on reviewing and tracking the progress of the Forex Autopilot so far.

Could this new Forex Tracer be the third profitable EA systems after Bogie and Autopilot? We will soon find out.

p.s. Thanks Kotaro for the above email. You just set me up a new expert advisor trading task. I do hope it is profitable as claimed. You and my readers will probably get the first-hand update regarding the forward test results of this new Tracer EA.

p.s.2 I wish to keep everyone updated. I received another reader's email with a comment from someone who is currently trialling the Tracer EA: "Overall the majority of trades were positive this week, but there was one trade that almost wiped out my demo account. I will test more and let you know if it turns out positive. It may be excellent however it certainly needs to be used with caution." Thanks for the heads-up and I'll certainly keep an eye on the system drawdown.

p.s.3 Profits vs. Drawdowns for Bogie, FAPS and Tracer EAs