Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Get to Know My Own Trading System (1)

Yeah, this is an exciting time for me. I manage to put my own trading system onto a "expert advisor". And I am able to learn more about my own strategy/system performance than never before.

All this while, I used to take any of its first signals which caught my attention, and for that I had mixed results. But I always believe in its potential.

Here is a brief overview of my system:
- It is neither a trend following nor a breakout system.
- It assesses only price action.
- It signals market 'turning' points (could be either a price reversal or continuation)
- It tends to enter trade near the high or low of the day

After some backtesting, I learn more about its ability, strength and weakness in greater detail. Here are some of its performances:
- It issues about the same number of long/short signals in a month
- It could be a winning month already with a 50% win-rate
- It performs better in a sideways, ranging month (e.g. Sept & Oct, see below)
- The system performs poorly in a strong trending month which leads to record high/low (e.g. July)
- The system can withstand wild price actions and market abnormalities (e.g August)

Below are the backtested results for the GBP/USD market in the months of July, August, September and this month so far.
Sideways of smaller day range ~100-200 pips (13 up days, 8 down day, 1 doji so far)

Sideways of greater day range ~ 'unusual' 200 - 300 pips (11 up days, 9 down)

Market 'panic' with sell-off & bottom fishing modes (10 up days, 12 down, 1 doji)

Strong trending month (13 up days, 8 down, 1 doji)

Monday, October 29, 2007

Metatrader 4 Expert Advisors

I am a keen user of metatrader forex trading platform. Stumbled across this website with a nice long list of free metatrader expert advisors. Expert advisors are the real deal of automated trading. There is currently an ongoing automated trading championship in searching for the most profitable, stable and reliable expert advisors.

Over the weekend, I got hooked on developing my own expert advisors from my own existing strategies. I already have some success and will be putting them on live trading this week. Same time next year, I would like to compete in the same championship.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Week 1 Trading Results

Week 1 trading summary is now available.
Total accumulated pips for the week:+22 pips
Total accumulated pips (if excluding GBP/USD): +173 pips
System win-rate: 53.8%
Pips breakdown/ win-rate/no. of trades taken:
USD/CAD +105 pips / 75% / 4
USD/JPY + 64 pips /100% /2
USD/CHF +4 pips /50% /4
GBP/USD -151 pips/ 0% /3

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Trading Results

Day 4 of system testing. I am up 66 pips so far. My indecision today was purely a violation of the principle of 'Forex Trading Made Easier' with a trading system.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

fx-millionaire on Zulutrade (1)

fx-millionaire is a short-term trading system that trades exclusively the GBP/JPY cross.

With a win-rate of 97% over 1000 trades, I am certainly impressed. However, subscribers should expect and be warned against big drawdown (occasionally) using this auto-trading system.

My first demo trade is currently one of 'it' with a -223 pips drawdown (still open).


The last time we saw this magnitude of drawdown (-241) is about 2 weeks ago. The system managed to salvage the position for 8 pips.


The system had similar drawdowns (-231) & (-318) about 5 and 6 weeks ago and it still salvaged 33 pips and 36 pips.



The monster of all drawdowns was the following unusual trade which eventually lost almost 700 pips.


On its proven track record and given the extreme price volatility of this currency pair, I would assume that a position would be beyond repair only if with a drawndown of over 300+ pips.

And hence, I am expecting my current demo trade to be a profitable one. Prove me wrong?

Related Posts:
Analysing System on Zulutrade (2)
Live Testing on Zulutrade (1)

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

The 3SMA Trend Following System Trade Entries

Here are some interesting forex charts I want to share with you from time to time, by Hector from HectorTrader.com. Based on his unique 3SMA System, simple moving averages of 30, 50 and 100 are applied to trade different price patterns and breakouts. See the following charts which describe this strategy:

(1) For spotting a healthy trend


(2) For trading a breakout


(3) Further assisted by own proprietary indicator & stringent trading rules


Here is a brief video introduction by Hector about searching the best quality trade setup as mentioned above. Feel free to visit his site for more information about his offered forex education program. Here are the list with over 17+ hours worth of videos.

HectorTrader: A Brief Intro

My new buddy, Hector, is a consistent forex trader and the inventor of the 3 SMA Trend Following System. His inspiration:
It doesn’t matter what system you base your trades on. A system is nothing but a work-frame to structure your daily decision-taking routine. What is actually truly important is to make sure you spot and understand healthy trends and swim in the direction of the flow. No matter how smart you are, no matter how talented you are as a trader, if you don’t trade in the direction of the overall main trend you will never achieve any type of consistency.
The time, patience and commitment he put in for maintaining his forex training course could not be faulted. With his daily email and video briefing, he makes sure you learn something new about forex trading everyday.

I would recommend his teachings to be used along side every trading system/software you have.

Monday, October 22, 2007

4-Hit Wonder

It did excellent in today's trending conditions.

Four out of four. I just managed to follow two of its signals.

'Nirvana Forex' in Trouble

'Nirvana Forex' of Zulutrade is currently in trouble by having too many open short yen positions during today's massive carry madness unwinding.

After 1 week of live testing, I managed to guess-estimate its entry strategy, but could not really figure out its exit. Maybe there isn't one. I really don't know.

An exit plan will certainly come in handy during unforeseen circumstances and if you have a limited capital. Preservation of capital is always the key to trading success.

At least, we got something out of it, click here, here and here for some nice looking charts.

Related posts:
How Nirvana Make Pips on Zulutrade (3)
Analysing System on Zulutrade (2)
Live Testing on Zulutrade (1)

Zulutrade: Sign up a free demo account. (Demo data delayed by 60 minutes)

Live Autopilot Forex Trading

Check this out. Forex killer autopilot trading ~ going live !