Trade The News 01-06-07 (Non-Farm Payroll)

"There was an initial spike as people saw the headline figure (Non-Farm Payroll) but the dollar quickly fell back after they realised it hasn't really changed anything".

Soon after the news, my long EUR/USD position was immediately stopped out at 1.3427 for -11 pips due to the stronger than expected job report. I immediately reentered another long position at 1.3423 (don't ask me exactly why ... may be partly due to buying at dip, not giving up etc. ). I noticed that the PCE report was actually showing a tamer rate of inflation. My position was gaining quick on my 2nd entry and I was able to exit for +35 pips just 4 minutes later. Since then, I have been sitting on the side line.

EUR/USD 1-min chart

Trading update: I am very close to my account target of Level 6 after hitting level 5 on Tuesday.

US Session 18-05-07

A tricky session. I smelled the rat but couldn't avoid falling into the trap after the release of US consumer confidence report. Two losing positions in a row, wiping my earlier gain on the CAD trade +29 pips.

Long USD/CHF -12 pips (a speculate trade that went wrong)


Short AUS/USD -11 pips (jumped in the trade too soon without further confirmation)


Session rating: - ; Level: 2 star

US Session 17-05-07

Not much happening for me in this session. Dollar surged immediately after the jobless claim report and since then the market has stayed range-bound.

All I did was counter-trend trading. Two positions, one good, one bad.

Long GBP/USD -11 pips


Long AUS/USD +10 pips


I missed a higher probability setup to enter short in USD/CAD.


Session rating: - ; Level: 1 star

US Session 16-05-07

I was trialing a new system and didn't notice that I was going against a strong trend. Consequently, my long AUS/USD trade made a massive 25-pip loss. I need to be extra careful next time round and not to let this happens again.

Long AUS/USD (-25 pips!!!)


Short GBP/USD (+16 pips) - Didn't quite get the best exit price, but I need to book this quickly as I was caught wrong-footed twice in today's action.

Session rating: (value:-0.5); Accumulated so far: +1 star

US Session 15-05-07 (CPI Report)

FOREX-Dollar drops vs euro after US CPI, flows data
Dollar Falls Versus Euro on Less-Than-Forecast Inflation Rate

Price action went choppy after the release of US CPI report. As a result, my short USD/JPY made a 11-pip loss. Then, I changed my direction, my winning short GBP/USD swung from +15 pips into breakeven. On hindsight, I should have booked any profit quickly after facing with a losing position.

I regrouped in the second-half of the trading session. I shorted both USD/CHF and USD/JPY at 1.2190 and 1.2045. They were losing positions at first with over 10 pips loss each. Then, the big move came, what a relief....

Short USD/JPY (-11 pips)
Reshort USD/JPY (exit half for +24 pips, still holding half)












Short GBP/USD (from +15 to breakeven, wrong timing again, same result as in this morning session)












USD/CHF (Only exit for +26 pips) - I got over-excited and left many pips on the table. Ouch!











Session rating:(value:+1); Accumulated so far: 2 stars

US Session 14-05-07

It wasn't a good day for trading. The markets stayed within a tight range (~15 pips) for the whole session. Towards the close of London market, EUR/USD managed to stay above the 200 EMA. My long USD/CHF position swiftly turned into a 3 pip loss.

Long USD/CHF (-3 pips)






EUR/USD

US Session 04-05-07 (Non-Farm Payroll)

Headlines
Dollar steady after below-forecast US payrolls

The non-farm payroll came out lower than expected. Bearish news for the dollar. I waited for about 10 minutes before I entered my positions, simply to avoid any wild price swings that could possibly stop you out. Remember, do not simply rush into positions. I find the following very true when you are trading a news event, You will always be given enough time to response, hence make sure you understand the news properly in order to make the right decision and, most importantly, enter at the best price during that time.

Long GBP/USD - Set to breakeven once in front with 15+ pips. Initially, I wanted to hold the position over to next week but finally made an exit for +40.











Short USD/JPY - I am still holding this one. Actually, I was expecting a bigger reaction from the NFP report earlier. A breakeven trade at least.











Hope you traded well this week. I will be away all week next week.

US Session 03-05-07

Headlines:
Dollar rises on stronger-than-forecast US data

Finally some price actions. All mojors broke the support/resistance of 200 EMA and continued to stay in trending manner almost for the whole session. Most importanly, price correlation could be found among them.

GBP/USD











EUR/USD











USD/JPY











USD/CHF (+18 pips)











EUR/JPY (+11 pips)

US Session 02-05-07

A very very tricky session. I am still trying to make sense of today's price action. You will find yourself in a better position if you could remain focused on the technical side, rather than trading impulsively based on the outcome of economic news releases. My trading decision has been biased by the fundamental news, hence I made some poor judgement in this session.

GBP/USD (no position) - I know it doesn't make any sense, but looking on the technical side, it is possible to make some good pips to go short GBP/USD (buy the dollar) after the soft ADP employment report.











EUR/USD (no position) - Simply and strongly supported by firm EUR/JPY prices.











USD/CHF (-12 pips) - Basically, it had no price correlation with other currency pairs before the 3pm news. I should have avoided this pair but I went long impulsively at 3pm at 1.2146 to catch the good news report. I paid a price and a lesson learnt.











USD/JPY (-8 pips) - For no strong reason, I entered the same long position at 3pm but eventually cut losses at 1.2010.

US Session 01-05-07

Headlines:
Dollar rallies after ISM hits 11-month high

I made a highly speculative trade in this trading session. I shorted GBP/USD 2.0060 at 2.59 pm (30 seconds before the release of the ISM manufacturing report). My USD bull bias was obtained from my "hidden gem" short signal seen at 2.48 pm and also another "hidden gem" signal appearing in the EUR/USD pair at the same time.

At 3.00 pm, a better than expected ISM report came out and hence confirming my USD bull stance. However, I was again disappointed by my exits (1/2 at 2.0040 for +20 and another1/2 at 2.0020 for +40). I left plenty of pips on the table as I couldn't manage to follow my simple exit rule. I must learn to recognise & hang on to this type of move which was simply driven by the fundamentals.

Short GBP/USD at 2.0060 (Exit 1/2 at 2.0040 and 1/2 at 2.0020; average +30 pips)











Confirmation of "hidden gem" signal in EUR/USD pair. Similar USD-bullish moves could also be seen in USD/CHF and USD/JPY pairs too.

US Session 30-04-07

Headlines:
Canadian dollar rises to 7-month high against US dollar on firm GDP data
Dollar drops on dip in US core PCE deflator

Basically, a trending session. You will be better-off by going with the flow.

(GBP/USD in slow climbing mode)











(EUR/USD did a late surge)











(USD/CAD - Looking at the price action, I should have held my earlier short position for a bigger profit)

US Session 27-04-07

Headlines:
Dollar cuts losses after hitting record low vs euro

The dollar rallied after the consumer confidence data and I could only pick up one reversal which was the USD/JPY.
(Long USD/JPY +40)












(USD/CHF no position)












(GBP/USD no position)

US Session

Not much that I can do in this session as the dollar rebounded strongly throughout the morning European session and into the opening of US session. We are getting into the tail end of big moves, and hence the expected choppy price action.

Choppy price action (GBP/USD):











A good trade that I missed (potential USD/CAD long +22):











A trade that I nearly got sucked in (EUR/JPY short potential loss -15):











A trade that I simply avoided due to low reward-risk ratio (possible long USD/JPY):
***Update***
I was wrong earlier, a 20 pip target was easily hit, current price 119.55!!!