GBP Trade +28 pips

M5 Entry - Long 1.8431
















M1 Exit - Close 1.8459
















Should follow M5 exit instead?
















Somehow for this trade, both exit strategies appear to yield the same result.

Meanwhile...

















Soon after my exit, M5 breakout again and this time on the down side. The move is so fast & furious and totally caught me by surprise during my lunch break. I have no time to respond. Otherwise...the result could be spectacular (a 100-pip move)!

Discovery Soaring High

GBP Trade +1 pip

10.52 am - Browsing for opportunities
















10 minutes later....M5 Breakout

A short trade entered at 1.8456
















12.45 pm Exit for 1 pip profit at 1.8455
















I couldn't quite manage to catch a strong enough move to make myself more pips. Perhaps, I should have reversed my position to go long after exit since there was a perfectly valid entry, but I didn't....(a decision which I regret and would take next time around).

Post-Fed Reaction

US stocks soar on Fed rate news
"Stocks on Wall Street soared on Thursday following the US Federal Reserve's 17th straight increase in interest rates. "

Dollar Drops as Dovish Fed Erodes Yield Curve Inversion
"Regarding inflation, the Fed maintained its description of inflation expectations as "remain contained", while the impact of resource utilization and rising energy prices to continue to only: have the potential to sustain inflation pressures."

Bureaucratese and the FOMC Statement
"I think this FOMC Statement could be better written - the last paragraph is especially bad."

29.6.2006

US Fed seen hiking rates to 5.25%
"We are at a turning point right now and not even the Fed can be sure how much more needs to be done."

The Inflation Conundrum?!
No genuine "tightening" has actually begun, yet...

Resume Trading

1100 - long cable 1.8192
M5 breakout
support: murrey math 0/8 level at 1.8188
resistance: murrey math 2/8 level at 1.8219
1115 - exit 1.8217 (+25) drawdown (-2)

Oops...Euro Collapsed

ECB president Trichet:
"The present high probability which is given for an increase of rates in our next meeting does not correspond to the present sentiment of the governing council."


Here are the summary of the ECB press conference following the rate decision:

* Key interest rate left unchanged at 2.5%
* Not a high probability of rate hike in May
* No mentioned of "vigilance" on inflation
* Sounded less hawkish than the market had expected

So, after 66 hours of buying frenzy, the euro finally eases back. A potential short swing trade from here, I reckon.

64 Hours and Counting

Euro is currently trading above 1.2300 level ahead of the European Central Bank rate decision. The bounce off of Monday's low has evolved into a buying frenzy.



Looking at the above chart, I wish I was in the market 64 hours ago! More chart analysis here, here and here.

Euro Breakout

Comments from various parties as euro strikes two-month high against dollar:

"We've seen this breakout and it's not just a function of dollar weakness but it is also supported by genuine euro strength."

"We are near a point this month that could see the early arrival of the weak dollar trade."

"There's still appetite from central banks around the world to continue to diversify out of dollars."

"Probably there will be an expansion of the current range that we've had -- $1.19 to 1.22 -- we could probably trade as high as $1.23, but before the payrolls report on Friday, I don't think we'll see too many more gains in the euro."

"In the second half of the year when the Fed is done, we'll see some real pressure on the dollar. We're looking to sell more dollars.''

Forex Trading Contest

Just found out that there is a forex trading contest that you can enter for free. Although the contest is already into Week 4, there are still prizes to be won for the coming weeks. It would also be interesting to know how you fair against others at the end of each trading week.