Introducing INO.com for traders of Forex, Futures and Options. The site is listed in the Forbes.com's rankings of the "BEST OF THE WEB" financial sites.
One of its flagship Market Club offers cutting edge tools such as the “Trade the Triangle” approach to the markets.
The “Trade the Triangle” and filtering techniques are amazingly SIMPLE, POWERFUL and ACCURATE. Its trading tools help countless members in over 40 countries to avoid losing trades and stay in WINNING TRADES.
Let's find out the more about the CORE trading approach of the Market Club (as seen in the figure above):
The Market Club provides DYNAMIC SCANNING and market coverage on more than 200,000 symbols in Futures, Forex and Stocks using its PATENTED SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGY.
Its advanced streaming chart tools AUTOMATICALLY identify the underlying market trend and trading opportunities by generating "BUY AND SELL TRIANGLES" for you on the daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly charts. PROVEN TRADING FORMULAS (see figure below) are used consistently.
It also disseminates clear instructions (i.e. well documented) on how to trade the triangles and execute winning trades in Forex, Futures and Stocks. Basically, you see the entry… you open the trade. You see the exit… you close the trade, as clear as 1, 2, 3 (as illustrated in the next figure).
The developers claimed that the system is CAPABLE of digging beneath the surface to help you find the RIGHT trading opportunities. Here's an overview of their MarketClub's ability to keep traders in winning trades and OUT OF LOSERS in recent tough market conditions.
View Results (Q4, 2007)
Also check out these videos which show you STEP BY STEP on how to approach the markets.
More results part 1
More results part 2
All these advanced tools will be available to us, plus the Market Club now provides 30-day review period. Also for a limited time, there are two extra bonuses along with the Market Club membership.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Misconception about Expert Advisor Trading
Many regard expert advisor as a set-and-forget system that will bring in money with little or no effort.
They believe in its past performance and hope it continues to outperform the market.
It is better to leave the running EA uninterrupted and the system will eventually yield the best trading results.
The potential upside is unlimited and you can hit the ultimate jackpot by growing your account exponentially.
I used to have the above thoughts too.
After more than two months running of my own expert advisor system, I am back to face the reality of trading.
Now I regard EA as a useful program which helps me diagnose and enter the market consistently.
It can correctly open trades with the right position sizing based on own defined risk limit.
My new objective is to make a living (steady income) via EA trading by generating consistent daily/weekly profits.
When I see fit, I will not hesitate to book any trading profits presented to me even though their price targets are not fully met. I believe in the random walk theory:
See related post: Measuring Trading Performance of My Expert Advisor System
They believe in its past performance and hope it continues to outperform the market.
It is better to leave the running EA uninterrupted and the system will eventually yield the best trading results.
The potential upside is unlimited and you can hit the ultimate jackpot by growing your account exponentially.
I used to have the above thoughts too.
After more than two months running of my own expert advisor system, I am back to face the reality of trading.
Now I regard EA as a useful program which helps me diagnose and enter the market consistently.
It can correctly open trades with the right position sizing based on own defined risk limit.
My new objective is to make a living (steady income) via EA trading by generating consistent daily/weekly profits.
When I see fit, I will not hesitate to book any trading profits presented to me even though their price targets are not fully met. I believe in the random walk theory:
The markets always take a random and unpredictable path. The chance of a price going up is the same as it going down.Now, I also have a daily profit target in place. If the target is met for the day, I will try reducing the risk exposure of the following trades to preserve winning for that day. I will do the same to limit trading losses.
See related post: Measuring Trading Performance of My Expert Advisor System
Friday, January 25, 2008
How to Avoid Making Bad Trade by Using 3SMA Trend Surfing Technique
I was caught short on GBP/USD from 1.9630 level (x3) since yesterday. In 24 hours time, the GBP/USD market moved from a swing low of 1.9500 to a swing high of 1.9850, a massive upside movement of 350 pips. I was unable to identify my mistakes at that time as the market continued to act against my positions.
This kind of unusual move is very detrimental to trading. When holding your positions against the trend with no stop limits and no backup trading plan, it could easily wipe your account slate clean. So, a lesson learned here.
I did a post-analysis of what went wrong yesterday. To troubleshoot, I strapped my M5 trade entry chart with 3SMA trend lines and also the associated trend filter indicator, courtesy of Hector's trading system. To further improve my trading skills, I recently exchanged emails with him on various trade ideas (I'll do some postings on that later) after studying his 3SMA course.
Here is how the 3SMA could help. It is important to note that the core concepts of 3SMA trading technique are identifying pattern breakouts and TREND SURFING.
Figure: Soon after my short entry at 1.9630, the 3SMA long setup appeared at least two times (see the marked circles inside the chart).
If you have been following Hector's trading video, you will know that the price was supported at the 3SMA dynamic region before bouncing off to a new swing high for a valid price pattern breakout. These 3SMA setups could therefore be very useful to serve as warnings if you are holding shorts; or better, to be used for long entries if you prepare to enter the market.
After this experience, I decided to practise the 3SMA technique frequently and suggest you to do the same by making use of this approach. The trading course is quite an expensive one (comes with money-back guarantee), but well worth it. In the long run, the course should help us avoid making rogue trades by increasing our trading awareness. With continuous trading support and through more practices, hopefully we can get rid of all our trading mistakes by becoming a better market observer and a safer trader.
This kind of unusual move is very detrimental to trading. When holding your positions against the trend with no stop limits and no backup trading plan, it could easily wipe your account slate clean. So, a lesson learned here.
I did a post-analysis of what went wrong yesterday. To troubleshoot, I strapped my M5 trade entry chart with 3SMA trend lines and also the associated trend filter indicator, courtesy of Hector's trading system. To further improve my trading skills, I recently exchanged emails with him on various trade ideas (I'll do some postings on that later) after studying his 3SMA course.
Here is how the 3SMA could help. It is important to note that the core concepts of 3SMA trading technique are identifying pattern breakouts and TREND SURFING.
Figure: Soon after my short entry at 1.9630, the 3SMA long setup appeared at least two times (see the marked circles inside the chart).
If you have been following Hector's trading video, you will know that the price was supported at the 3SMA dynamic region before bouncing off to a new swing high for a valid price pattern breakout. These 3SMA setups could therefore be very useful to serve as warnings if you are holding shorts; or better, to be used for long entries if you prepare to enter the market.
After this experience, I decided to practise the 3SMA technique frequently and suggest you to do the same by making use of this approach. The trading course is quite an expensive one (comes with money-back guarantee), but well worth it. In the long run, the course should help us avoid making rogue trades by increasing our trading awareness. With continuous trading support and through more practices, hopefully we can get rid of all our trading mistakes by becoming a better market observer and a safer trader.
Categories:
hector,
reviews,
trend-following
Thursday, January 24, 2008
InoTv Trading Channels
INO TV provides 11 great "Trading Channels" to IMPROVE trading skills.
Now for the FIRST TIME, users can watch trading seminars (WEBINARS) stream directly to their computer screen.
Here are the benefits using the INO TV service.
* UNLIMITED 24/7 worldwide access
* Over 150 online experts to help users
e* Over 400 online ebooks to give pointers
* Over 500 online trading seminars (including some WELL-KNOWN names)
* Over 1,000 hours of online trading material
* Access to everything...no restrictions
Here is a sneak peek inside members only InoTV:
Tap here to see MORE benefits using INO TV.
Now for the FIRST TIME, users can watch trading seminars (WEBINARS) stream directly to their computer screen.
Here are the benefits using the INO TV service.
* UNLIMITED 24/7 worldwide access
* Over 150 online experts to help users
e* Over 400 online ebooks to give pointers
* Over 500 online trading seminars (including some WELL-KNOWN names)
* Over 1,000 hours of online trading material
* Access to everything...no restrictions
Here is a sneak peek inside members only InoTV:
Tap here to see MORE benefits using INO TV.
Bogie EA Performance Warning
William Boatright just sent me an e-mail saying that his EA is not performing well in current global market conditions. According to him:
I was just about to join him after setting up a separate EA trading account. I think I’ll monitor the situation further and will do a little bit of investigation myself about the right market conditions which are favourable for running Bogie.
Latest update (11 Feb, 08): Official Release of Bogie-NeuralNetwork-1
We have had 4 loses since from January 1. The EA has never had this many loses this close together. Also my personal retirement account (IRA) has lost 14% of equity since January 1.
The EURUSD price movements is being heavily influenced by global securities markets. 2 to 7 % securities swings in single day is making it difficult for EA to detect sustainable daily price movement. The past success of this EA has been that daily trends detected at StartTime would continue long enough to close with profit. The last few weeks, the EURUSD price has erratically moved up and down several times per day.
It is quite evident to me, that until the global securities market stabilizes, this EA could continue to make loses. I can only suggest that until this market stabilizes, you should only run Demo or very low risk on Live accounts. Then when market stabilizes and win/loss ratio improves, then go Live or adjust your Live Risk Level to your preferred setting.
I was just about to join him after setting up a separate EA trading account. I think I’ll monitor the situation further and will do a little bit of investigation myself about the right market conditions which are favourable for running Bogie.
Latest update (11 Feb, 08): Official Release of Bogie-NeuralNetwork-1
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
EA Trading (Day 45): +26.4%
Performance since start (20 November 2007 - 23 January 2008): +26.4%
After a shaky start, my expert advisor was back on track.
Here is the results 45 trading days later:
Figure 1: Highest trading account balance at the end of day 45.
Figure 2: Risk control algorithm in place on day 27; since then, the biggest one-day loss was -12.8%, the biggest one-day gain was 15.34%, with 13 winning days and 7 losing days.
Figure 3: Based on a simple calculation, the trading account is currently yielding around 0.37 -0.59% per trading day so far. Is it possible to achieve a daily average return of 1-2% in the long run? I need to find a bench mark against which the performance of my EA can be judged. At the moment, I should do my best to maintain performance consistency under varying market conditions.
After a shaky start, my expert advisor was back on track.
Here is the results 45 trading days later:
Figure 1: Highest trading account balance at the end of day 45.
Figure 2: Risk control algorithm in place on day 27; since then, the biggest one-day loss was -12.8%, the biggest one-day gain was 15.34%, with 13 winning days and 7 losing days.
Figure 3: Based on a simple calculation, the trading account is currently yielding around 0.37 -0.59% per trading day so far. Is it possible to achieve a daily average return of 1-2% in the long run? I need to find a bench mark against which the performance of my EA can be judged. At the moment, I should do my best to maintain performance consistency under varying market conditions.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Trader LLoyd's Discretionary Trading System
I watched my EA in action for the past two months.
I learned from its consistent trading behaviour and pattern.
I analysed the market conditions as well as the signal performance.
I applied everything I've learned so far in order to make better discretionary trading decisions.
Now, it's a good time to reflect.
It's a pleasure to look at these extraordinary trading results achieved during the recent extraordinary market conditions.
(More results on zulutrade. Sign up a free 30 day demo account today to receive zulutrade auto signals.)
I wish I can keep this up, not only the results, but also the mental strength to innovate.
I will keep my rational mind and realistic goals in check.
I will draw my own path to reach trading success.
I learned from its consistent trading behaviour and pattern.
I analysed the market conditions as well as the signal performance.
I applied everything I've learned so far in order to make better discretionary trading decisions.
Now, it's a good time to reflect.
It's a pleasure to look at these extraordinary trading results achieved during the recent extraordinary market conditions.
(More results on zulutrade. Sign up a free 30 day demo account today to receive zulutrade auto signals.)
I wish I can keep this up, not only the results, but also the mental strength to innovate.
I will keep my rational mind and realistic goals in check.
I will draw my own path to reach trading success.
Monday, January 21, 2008
A Ugly Day for Stocks, A Memorable Day for Mechanical Forex
I had so many bad trading experience in the past, especially on the days when stock markets crashed heavily. The end results were usually ruined trading accounts.
Today, stock markets around the globe fell heavily.
Unprecedentedly, my 'experimental' mechanical forex system scored a perfect day with a string of 11 winners and no loser. Despite my manual intervention (see chart below) and a conservative setting of using 1st (i.e. smaller) and 2nd profit target levels, the trading account still registered a 15% one-day gain. I have not counted the number of pips yet. I think I made more than 300 pips.
(underline: positions exited manually due to own suspicious mind and they should have hit the projected profit target levels)
An unusual trading day to remember.
Today, stock markets around the globe fell heavily.
Unprecedentedly, my 'experimental' mechanical forex system scored a perfect day with a string of 11 winners and no loser. Despite my manual intervention (see chart below) and a conservative setting of using 1st (i.e. smaller) and 2nd profit target levels, the trading account still registered a 15% one-day gain. I have not counted the number of pips yet. I think I made more than 300 pips.
(underline: positions exited manually due to own suspicious mind and they should have hit the projected profit target levels)
An unusual trading day to remember.
Categories:
expert-advisor,
history,
journal
Friday, January 18, 2008
My Daily Trading Routine
Balancing full time work and 'part-time' trading (and also blogging) is never easy. Especially when comes to dealing with the Forex market, you are also expecting full-on, non-stop price actions around the clock 24/5.
In fact, I could never manage all trading tasks by myself, and quite often, have to rely on my missus's assistance. Here's my daily trading routine at the moment:
Daily Trading Routine
My own running ea system has been very active so far and it does help me to predict better the market movement. Although the trading account is not progressing much, but its trade entries and end results are quite useful for identifying important price retracement levels and generating hidden 'secondary-level' signals for my discretionary trades. I wrote more about that here.
As for the discretionary trades, I am getting involved again in the last few days. I wish to sharpen my trading skills continuously and apply what I have learned so far in this new year. I also challenge myself by opening and handling multiple positions at one time.
Overall, this daily routine serves to instill purpose in trading and ensures that I'm moving towards my goals.
What's your daily trading routine?
In fact, I could never manage all trading tasks by myself, and quite often, have to rely on my missus's assistance. Here's my daily trading routine at the moment:
Daily Trading Routine
- Scan for swing trading opportunities on H1 chart (2 x10 minutes)
- Monitor open positions (ongoing)
- Follow live economic news releases at 9.30 am and 1.30 pm (2 x 15 minutes)
- Watch live price action during lunch break/evening on M5 chart (more than 30 minutes)
- Review expert advisor trading results (15 minutes)
- Gauge market sentiment of the US dollar on daily trend chart (15 minutes)
- Demo aggressive style discretionary trading strategy (started recently)
- Read market news (when free)
- Write blog posts and research new trading ideas (when free)
My own running ea system has been very active so far and it does help me to predict better the market movement. Although the trading account is not progressing much, but its trade entries and end results are quite useful for identifying important price retracement levels and generating hidden 'secondary-level' signals for my discretionary trades. I wrote more about that here.
As for the discretionary trades, I am getting involved again in the last few days. I wish to sharpen my trading skills continuously and apply what I have learned so far in this new year. I also challenge myself by opening and handling multiple positions at one time.
Overall, this daily routine serves to instill purpose in trading and ensures that I'm moving towards my goals.
What's your daily trading routine?
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Chart of Interest: Price Continuation
Saturday, January 12, 2008
What's the Best Way to Trail Your Trading Profits? (1)
So often, many of my EA's In-The-Money positions (+40 to 50 pips) were stopped out/hunted at the price-retracement (resistance/support) level for a smaller gain (+10 to 20 pips) before the real action continued again.
As always, the EA used a fixed trailing stop algorithm to protect part of their gains. But, the disadvantage of this was giving them very little room for prices to manoeuvre in order to reach their final targets.
Below are some examples:
USDJPY 5-min 10 Jan 2008
GBPUSD 5-min 9 Jan 2008
But, I wouldn't want to change the algorithm for now as there could be a positive implication out of these case studies. Such end results might be useful for identifying important price retracement levels and perhaps, generating hidden "secondary-level"signals good for discretionary trade re-entry?
Still, this hasn't answered the main question yet - what's the best way to trail your profits? I am still unclear at present and temporarily, I have to resort to setting a moderate first target (good for 30 - 40 pips) and also a more aggressive second target (of at least 80 pips). More studies will be carried out on these topics when free.
As always, the EA used a fixed trailing stop algorithm to protect part of their gains. But, the disadvantage of this was giving them very little room for prices to manoeuvre in order to reach their final targets.
Below are some examples:
USDJPY 5-min 10 Jan 2008
GBPUSD 5-min 9 Jan 2008
But, I wouldn't want to change the algorithm for now as there could be a positive implication out of these case studies. Such end results might be useful for identifying important price retracement levels and perhaps, generating hidden "secondary-level"signals good for discretionary trade re-entry?
Still, this hasn't answered the main question yet - what's the best way to trail your profits? I am still unclear at present and temporarily, I have to resort to setting a moderate first target (good for 30 - 40 pips) and also a more aggressive second target (of at least 80 pips). More studies will be carried out on these topics when free.
Categories:
Charting,
expert-advisor,
history,
trend-following
A Flat to Down Week
This was a rough week for trading as the market went through some wild mood swings. Central bankers' rate decisions and comments in this week seemed to do its usual tricks and rattled the market a lot. Undoubtedly, the number one driver at present is the interest rate decisions and this trend looks set to continue. More 'talks and comments' are scheduled next week.
A very mixed picture from the technical point of view:
Some yes, some no
The dollar rallied unexpectedly on Wednesday
A very mixed picture from the fundamental point of view:
Bernanke: 2008 Outlook Worsened
Fed Cuts by 75bp in January? What are they thinking?!
Results for 07.01.08 - 11.01.08:
Day / EA / Swing Trading
Monday: Lose /No Trade
Tuesday:Win / Win
Wednesday: Lose /Lose
Thursday: Win / No Trade
Friday: Lose / Win
A very mixed picture from the technical point of view:
Some yes, some no
The dollar rallied unexpectedly on Wednesday
A very mixed picture from the fundamental point of view:
Bernanke: 2008 Outlook Worsened
Fed Cuts by 75bp in January? What are they thinking?!
Results for 07.01.08 - 11.01.08:
Day / EA / Swing Trading
Monday: Lose /No Trade
Tuesday:Win / Win
Wednesday: Lose /Lose
Thursday: Win / No Trade
Friday: Lose / Win
Friday, January 11, 2008
My EA Trade History
January 2008 (part 2)
Changes implemented:
(1) Fractional lot sizing based on 2% risk per trade of the account free margin level
(2) Two positions opened per signal with 1st and 2nd profit target levels
* Manual intervention
This Month (part 2)
Trade Breakdown
USD/CAD +209 pips (20W 8L)
USD/JPY +269 pips (20W 14L)
AUS/USD +179 pips (17W 14L)
GBP/USD -449 pips (11W 21L)
USD/CHF +326 pips (8W 2L)
----------------------------------------------
Daily Results
Day 36: 9 Trades (6W 3L) +76 pips, +$41.83, +3.98%
Day 37: 7 Trades (2W 5L) -63 pips, $39.58, -3.62%
Day 38: 0 Trade
Day 39: 13 Trades (7W 6L) +52 pips, +$17.61, +1.67%
Day 40: 15 Trades (6W 9L) -229 pips, -$111.17, -10.38%
Day 41: 6 Trades (4W 2L) +40 pips, +$14.4, +1.5%
Day 42: 7 Trades (3W 4L) +51 pips, +$23.56, +2.42%
Day 43: 11 Trades (11W) +346 pips, +$152.98, +15.3% A Ugly Day for Stocks (1-21)
Day 44: 7 Trades (5W 2L) +123 pips, +$50.39, +4.38%
Day 45: 10 Trades (6W 4L) +179 pips, +$103.4, +8.61%
Day 46: 10 Trades (10L) -391 pips, -$201.48, -15.45%
Day 47: 10 Trades (4W 6L) -116 pips, -$54.62, 4.95%
Day 48: 7 Trades (4W 3L) +82 pips, +$32.68, +3.12%
Day 49: 7 Trades (7W) +82 pips, +$89.64, +8.29%
Day 50: 10 Trades (6W 4L) +115 pips, +$42.8, +3.66%
Day 51: 6 Trades (4W 2L) +75 pips, 9.31, +0.77%
View January 2008 Trade History part 1
View December 2007 Trade History
View November 2007 Trade History
Changes implemented:
(1) Fractional lot sizing based on 2% risk per trade of the account free margin level
(2) Two positions opened per signal with 1st and 2nd profit target levels
Date/Day | Currency/Trades | B/S | 1st.t | 2nd.t | stop.l | P/L |
2008-01-10 (36) | USD/JPY (4W) | S | 88 | 0 | 0 | $35.63 |
GBP/USD (3L) | S | 0 | 0 | -122 | -$59.8 | |
AUS/USD (2W) | B | 40 | 70 | 0 | $66 | |
2008-01-11 (37) | GBP/USD (3L) | S | 0 | 0 | -120 | -$60 |
USD/CAD (2W) | B | 42 | 85 | 0 | $62.42 | |
AUS/USD (2L) | B | 0 | 0 | -70 | -$42 | |
2008-01-14 (38) | No Closed Trade | - | - | - | - | - |
2008-01-15 (39) | USD/JPY (4W) | S | 134 | 85 | 0 | $100.61 |
USD/CAD (1W 2L) | B | 0 | 0 | -80 | -$39.5 | |
GBP/USD (2W 2L) | S | 73 | 0 | -80 | -$3.5 | |
AUS/USD (2L) | B | 0 | 0 | -80 | -$40 | |
2008-01-16 (40) | AUS/USD (3W 2L) | B | 61 | 0 | -70 | -$6.4 |
USD/CAD (3W 2L) | B | 60 | 0 | -80 | -$9.91 | |
USD/JPY (4L) | S | 0 | 0 | -160 | -$74.86 | |
GBP/USD (1L) | S | 0 | 0 | -40 | -$20 | |
2008-01-17 (41) | USD/JPY (2W) | S | 68 | 0 | 0 | $27.46 |
AUS/USD (2W) | B | 52* | 0 | 0 | $26.94 | |
GBP/USD (2L) | S | 0 | 0 | -80 | -$40 | |
2008-01-18 (42) | USD/JPY (2W 2L) | S | 63* | 85 | -80 | $32.06 |
GBP/USD (1W 2L) | S | 0 | 0 | -17* | -$8.5 | |
2008-01-21 (43) | AUS/USD (2W) | B | 38 | 10 | 0 | $24.32 |
GBP/USD (4W) | S | 100* | 0 | 0 | $39.2 | |
USD/JPY (2W) | S | 40 | 68* | 0 | $50.81 | |
USD/CAD (3W) | B | 80 | 10 | 0 | $38.65 | |
2008-01-22 (44) | USD/CAD (3W) | B | 40 | 34 | 0 | $35.69 |
AUS/USD (2L) | B | 0 | 0 | -70 | -$38.5 | |
USD/CHF (2W) | S | 40 | 79* | 0 | $53.2 | |
2008-01-23 (45) | AUS/USD (2W 2L) | S | 40 | 70 | -70 | $35 |
USD/CHF (2W 2L) | S | 37* | 71* | -80 | $15.76 | |
USD/JPY (2W) | S | 31* | 80* | 0 | $52.64 | |
2008-01-24 (46) | GBP/USD (2L) | S | 0 | 0 | -80 | -$56 |
USD/JPY (4L) | S | 0 | 0 | -161 | -$75.4 | |
USD/CAD (2L) | B | 0 | 0 | -80 | -$31.58 | |
AUS/USD (2L) | S | 0 | 0 | -70 | -$38.5 | |
2008-01-25 (47) | GBP/USD (4L) | S | 0 | 0 | -160 | -$64 |
USD/JPY (2L) | S | 0 | 0 | -80 | -$37.18 | |
USD/CAD (2W) | B | 40 | 10 | 0 | $19.84 | |
AUS/USD (2W) | S | 64* | 10 | 0 | $26.72 | |
2008-01-28 (48) | GBP/USD (2W) | B | 40 | 10 | 0 | $25 |
USD/CAD (1W) | S | 40 | 0 | 0 | $19.92 | |
USD/CHF (2W) | S | 40 | 22 | 0 | $22.76 | |
AUS/USD (2L) | S | 0 | 0 | -70 | -$35 | |
2008-01-29 (49) | USD/CAD (3W) | S | 27* | 10 | 0 | $18.36 |
USD/JPY (2W) | S | 40 | 10 | 0 | $17.78 | |
GBP/USD (2W) | B | 37 | 70* | 0 | $53.5 | |
2008-01-30 (50) | USD/CAD (2W) | S | 31* | 20 | 0 | $25.39 |
USD/JPY (2L) | S | 0 | 0 | -83 | -$23.95 | |
GBP/USD (2L) | B | 0 | 0 | -80 | -$24 | |
AUS/USD (2W) | B | 40 | 70 | 0 | $33 | |
USD/CHF (2W) | S | 40 | 77* | 0 | $32.36 | |
2008-01-31 (51) | USD/JPY (2W) | S | 40 | 1* | 0 | $23.17 |
USD/CAD (2L) | S | 0 | 0 | -80 | -$48.06 | |
AUS/USD (2W) | B | 50* | 64* | 0 | $34.2 |
This Month (part 2)
Pips Total | P/L Total | % Gain |
534 | $171.75 | 16.34% |
Trade Breakdown
USD/CAD +209 pips (20W 8L)
USD/JPY +269 pips (20W 14L)
AUS/USD +179 pips (17W 14L)
GBP/USD -449 pips (11W 21L)
USD/CHF +326 pips (8W 2L)
----------------------------------------------
Daily Results
Day 36: 9 Trades (6W 3L) +76 pips, +$41.83, +3.98%
Day 37: 7 Trades (2W 5L) -63 pips, $39.58, -3.62%
Day 38: 0 Trade
Day 39: 13 Trades (7W 6L) +52 pips, +$17.61, +1.67%
Day 40: 15 Trades (6W 9L) -229 pips, -$111.17, -10.38%
Day 41: 6 Trades (4W 2L) +40 pips, +$14.4, +1.5%
Day 42: 7 Trades (3W 4L) +51 pips, +$23.56, +2.42%
Day 43: 11 Trades (11W) +346 pips, +$152.98, +15.3% A Ugly Day for Stocks (1-21)
Day 44: 7 Trades (5W 2L) +123 pips, +$50.39, +4.38%
Day 45: 10 Trades (6W 4L) +179 pips, +$103.4, +8.61%
Day 46: 10 Trades (10L) -391 pips, -$201.48, -15.45%
Day 47: 10 Trades (4W 6L) -116 pips, -$54.62, 4.95%
Day 48: 7 Trades (4W 3L) +82 pips, +$32.68, +3.12%
Day 49: 7 Trades (7W) +82 pips, +$89.64, +8.29%
Day 50: 10 Trades (6W 4L) +115 pips, +$42.8, +3.66%
Day 51: 6 Trades (4W 2L) +75 pips, 9.31, +0.77%
View January 2008 Trade History part 1
View December 2007 Trade History
View November 2007 Trade History
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Measuring Trading Performance of My Expert Advisor System
At the end of day 35, my expert advisor experimental trading fund stood at $1050.79. So far, it only made a gain of 1.8% from an initial starting fund of $1031.85. To provide a better picture of its trading performance over the period of 35 days, I performed a modified Sharpe-Ratio type calculation, known as the standard score.
Standard Score
Based on the calculation, my EA standard score is 0.007, and its corresponding percentage rank is 0.5. The result simply implies that I only have a 50% chance to make money on a trading day using my EA system. Obviously, this is not good enough. And if stays like this, my EA fund is definitely going nowhere. Hence, improvements are needed.
Possible Improvements
Future work in the following aspects is to be considered for improving the score, and to guarantee my future paycheck:
1) Increase the average winning size /book profits more often (implemented) and devise new trailing strategy
2) Increase the number of winners/ filter out underperformed markets
3) Reduce the average losing size / devise new exit strategy for losing trades
I will also be using a new trade history table to review my daily performance from now onwards.
Standard Score
"Each standard score has a corresponding percentage rank. This measure allows you to determine, assuming everything stays the same, what percentage of time periods (e.g. weeks) will be winners versus losers. It is based on absolute trade performance, not percentage gain. This is very important if you're trying to make a living by trading (will there be a paycheck next week?)"
Based on the calculation, my EA standard score is 0.007, and its corresponding percentage rank is 0.5. The result simply implies that I only have a 50% chance to make money on a trading day using my EA system. Obviously, this is not good enough. And if stays like this, my EA fund is definitely going nowhere. Hence, improvements are needed.
Possible Improvements
Future work in the following aspects is to be considered for improving the score, and to guarantee my future paycheck:
1) Increase the average winning size /
2) Increase the number of winners/ filter out underperformed markets
3) Reduce the average losing size / devise new exit strategy for losing trades
I will also be using a new trade history table to review my daily performance from now onwards.
Friday, January 4, 2008
A Simple Guide on Forex News Trading
To make profits from news trading - how ever you look at it - is a difficult task. Here are the four possible trading outcomes you have to accept:
(1) A predetermined loss amount (by using guaranteed stop order)
(2) A higher loss amount (invalid or no stop order due to price gapping) - Worst case scenario
(3) A predetermined win amount (by using fixed target limit level) - Best case scenario
(4) A smaller win amount (by using trailing stop order)
Interestingly, it is also possible to have different trading outcomes from just one news event, simply depending on which market your choose to enter. Let use today's US non-farm payrolls as a case study.
An Example
I was bearish on the USD dollar before the big news and was expecting a lower job report. I was holding three short USD positions into the news event with predetermined target and loss levels. The news came out in favour of my positions first, but the US dollar rebounded strongly after the initial retreat. It was a classic dollar bear trap scenario.
Here are my three different outcomes:
Short USD/JPY yielded +85 pips (scenario 3 above)
Short USD/CAD stopped out -40 pips (scenario 1)
Long AUD/USD stopped out +21 pips (scenario 4)
Must Use Stops
Setting the right stop levels is an imprecise science and involves a lot of trial and error. But it is a must when come to news trading. I would suggest using a reward-to-risk ratio of 2 or better when considering the stop levels. You should also expect a widened spread seconds before as well as after the news releases. Make sure to check with your retail forex broker.
In summary, there are many factors to consider when dealing with economic news releases - part number crunching, part guesswork, part experience. Especially in the forex market, the more you know, the less chance you will mess up. Therefore, give it lots of thought and know your reasoning behind your each move. It is also important to keep track your win-loss rate before deciding to continue on.
(1) A predetermined loss amount (by using guaranteed stop order)
(2) A higher loss amount (invalid or no stop order due to price gapping) - Worst case scenario
(3) A predetermined win amount (by using fixed target limit level) - Best case scenario
(4) A smaller win amount (by using trailing stop order)
Interestingly, it is also possible to have different trading outcomes from just one news event, simply depending on which market your choose to enter. Let use today's US non-farm payrolls as a case study.
An Example
I was bearish on the USD dollar before the big news and was expecting a lower job report. I was holding three short USD positions into the news event with predetermined target and loss levels. The news came out in favour of my positions first, but the US dollar rebounded strongly after the initial retreat. It was a classic dollar bear trap scenario.
Here are my three different outcomes:
Short USD/JPY yielded +85 pips (scenario 3 above)
Short USD/CAD stopped out -40 pips (scenario 1)
Long AUD/USD stopped out +21 pips (scenario 4)
Must Use Stops
Setting the right stop levels is an imprecise science and involves a lot of trial and error. But it is a must when come to news trading. I would suggest using a reward-to-risk ratio of 2 or better when considering the stop levels. You should also expect a widened spread seconds before as well as after the news releases. Make sure to check with your retail forex broker.
In summary, there are many factors to consider when dealing with economic news releases - part number crunching, part guesswork, part experience. Especially in the forex market, the more you know, the less chance you will mess up. Therefore, give it lots of thought and know your reasoning behind your each move. It is also important to keep track your win-loss rate before deciding to continue on.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Finding Profitable EA Systems (1)
As one of my goals of 2008, I am going to present myself with a new task of finding profitable expert advisor trading systems which are capable of producing good returns for myself and my readers
(From my earlier posting: There must be a better trading system out there)
Without further a due, let me introduce the first EA system of my recommendation.
#EA no. 1: Bogie-ATC2007-1 (a.k.a. Wackena System)
A profitable system?
A simple YES. This EA system has a profitable track record and its recent stellar performance (from 1st Oct 07 - 21st Dec 07) has eventually granted the developer, Mr. William Boatright, a 2nd place in the automated trading championship 2007 and also $25,000 prize money.
What trading approach?
The EA uses a daily trend indicator code to determine whether price direction is moving up (Buy) or down (Sell). After confirmation, it enters positions at a preselected time (i.e. 2pm EST or 7pm GMT) for each trading day. It uses a fixed 100-pip stop loss and a 100-pip take profit levels. More information can be found here.
Where's the strong point?
The EA implements an intelligent dynamic trailing stops routine to assure profits and positions are usually closed out for gains before the upcoming daily trend assessment. It has an impressive win rate of 91.84%, only 4 losing days out of 45, a true championship record !
Which market and trading platform?
This EA is applied to EUR/USD market on any Metatrader trading platform. The selected time chart is D1 (daily).
Is the EA available for use?
Yes, you can purchase a monthly license to use this EA for $49.50. Users must also agree to the terms and conditions of the "Buyer Honesty System" Agreement.
This is my brief summary about the Bogie-ATC2007-1 EA. Personally, I am going to live test this EA, as soon as next week. As you may have noticed, I haven't traded the EUR/USD market with my own EA as my backtesting shows no real results with this major currency pair. Hence, it should be interesting trialing a new system. I truly believe that this EA will continue to perform well in future. So, let's start investing in profitable expert advisors together for all these simple reasons.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Promotion
Lastly, I leave you with some good news. A special promotion from Mr.William Boatright. Readers of my site can now get a 20% discount off the original offer price (i.e. $39.60). To get this offer, simply use a reference code **SCOUTFX** unique to this site. (Updated: You can now use the purchase links below). Please visit http://bogie-enterprises.com for the latest live test results, pricing notification and buyer agreement and also don't hesitate to contact me for any related queries.
1 Month$49.50 $39.60
3 Months$148.50 $118.80
6 Months$297.00, $237.60
12 Months$594.00, $475.20
1 Month-Recurring$49.50, $39.60 per month
#EA no. 1: Bogie-ATC2007-1 (a.k.a. Wackena System)
A profitable system?
A simple YES. This EA system has a profitable track record and its recent stellar performance (from 1st Oct 07 - 21st Dec 07) has eventually granted the developer, Mr. William Boatright, a 2nd place in the automated trading championship 2007 and also $25,000 prize money.
What trading approach?
The EA uses a daily trend indicator code to determine whether price direction is moving up (Buy) or down (Sell). After confirmation, it enters positions at a preselected time (i.e. 2pm EST or 7pm GMT) for each trading day. It uses a fixed 100-pip stop loss and a 100-pip take profit levels. More information can be found here.
Where's the strong point?
The EA implements an intelligent dynamic trailing stops routine to assure profits and positions are usually closed out for gains before the upcoming daily trend assessment. It has an impressive win rate of 91.84%, only 4 losing days out of 45, a true championship record !
Which market and trading platform?
This EA is applied to EUR/USD market on any Metatrader trading platform. The selected time chart is D1 (daily).
Is the EA available for use?
Yes, you can purchase a monthly license to use this EA for $49.50. Users must also agree to the terms and conditions of the "Buyer Honesty System" Agreement.
This is my brief summary about the Bogie-ATC2007-1 EA. Personally, I am going to live test this EA, as soon as next week. As you may have noticed, I haven't traded the EUR/USD market with my own EA as my backtesting shows no real results with this major currency pair. Hence, it should be interesting trialing a new system. I truly believe that this EA will continue to perform well in future. So, let's start investing in profitable expert advisors together for all these simple reasons.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Promotion
Lastly, I leave you with some good news. A special promotion from Mr.William Boatright. Readers of my site can now get a 20% discount off the original offer price (i.e. $39.60). To get this offer, simply use a reference code **SCOUTFX** unique to this site. (Updated: You can now use the purchase links below). Please visit http://bogie-enterprises.com for the latest live test results, pricing notification and buyer agreement and also don't hesitate to contact me for any related queries.
1 Month
3 Months
6 Months
12 Months
1 Month-Recurring
Categories:
bogie,
expert-advisor,
reviews,
System
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
My EA Trade History
January 2008
Changes implemented:
(1) Fractional lot sizing based on 4% risk on account free margin level
This Month
Trade Breakdown
USD/JPY +135 pips (3W 3L)
GBP/USD +163 pips (5W)
AUS/USD +98 pips (5W 1L)
USD/CHF -80 pips (2L)
USD/CAD -160 pips (4L)
----------------------------------------------
Since Start
Trade Breakdown
USD/JPY +264 pips (13W 7L)
GBP/USD +68 pips (23W 20L)
AUS/USD +41 pips (23W 21L)
USD/CAD -100 pips (12W 12L)
USD/CHF -208 pips (10W 10L)
----------------------------------------------
Daily Results
Day 30: 4 Trades (3W 1L) +77 pips, +$72.5
Day 31: 3 Trades (2W 1L) +130 pips, +$86.06
Day 32: 5 Trades (3W 2L) +56 pips, +$60.04 Non-Farm Payroll day, USD bear trap? (1-4)
Day 33: 1 Trade (1L) -40 pips, -$35.89
Day 34: 4 Trades (2W 2L) +11 pips, +$37.11
Day 35: 6 Trades (3W 3L) -78 pips, -$77.34
View December 2007 Trade History
View November 2007 Trade History
Changes implemented:
(1) Fractional lot sizing based on 4% risk on account free margin level
Entry Date/Day | Currency | B/S | R | Lot | Pips | P/L |
2008-01-02 (30) | AUS/USD | B | 0.29 | 0.1 | 10 | $10 |
2008-01-02 | USD/CAD | S | -1 | 0.06 | -40 | -$24.19 |
2008-01-02 | USD/JPY | S | 2.13 | 0.09 | 85 | $69.09 |
2008-01-02 | GBP/USD | S | 0.49 | 0.08 | 22 | $17.60 |
2008-01-03 (31) | GBP/USD | S | 2.13 | 0.08 | 85 | $68 |
2008-01-03 | USD/JPY | S | 2.13 | 0.07 | 85 | $54.77 |
2008-01-02 | USD/CAD | S | -1 | 0.09 | -40 | -$36.71 |
2008-01-02 (32) | AUS/USD | B | -1 | 0.08 | -35 | -$27.11 |
2008-01-03 | GBP/USD | S | 0.63 | 0.1 | 25 | $24.05 |
2008-01-04 | USD/JPY | S | 2.13 | 0.1 | 85 | $78.36 |
2008-01-04 | AUS/USD | B | 0.6 | 0.1 | 21 | $21 |
2008-01-04 | USD/CAD | S | -1 | 0.9 | -40 | -$36.26 |
2008-01-07 (33) | USD/CHF | S | -1 | 0.1 | -40 | -$35.89 |
2008-01-04 (34) | AUS/USD | B | 2 | 0.13 | 70 | $91.76 |
2008-01-08 | USD/JPY | S | -1 | 0.12 | -40 | -$43.74 |
2008-01-08 | USD/CAD | B | -1 | 0.09 | -40 | -$36.11 |
2008-01-08 | AUS/USD | B | 0.53 | 0.12 | 21 | $25.2 |
2008-01-09 (35) | USD/JPY | S | -1 | 0.1 | -40 | -$36.53 |
2008-01-09 | GBP/USD | S | 0.53 | 0.9 | 21 | $18.9 |
2008-01-09 | AUS/USD | B | 0.28 | 0.9 | 11 | $9.9 |
2008-01-09 | GBP/USD | S | 0.25 | 0.9 | 10 | $9 |
2008-01-09 | USD/CHF | S | -1 | 0.11 | -40 | -$40.36 |
2008-01-09 | USD/JPY | S | -1 | 0.1 | -40 | -$38.27 |
This Month
Pips Total | P/L Total |
+156 | +$142.48 |
Trade Breakdown
USD/JPY +135 pips (3W 3L)
GBP/USD +163 pips (5W)
AUS/USD +98 pips (5W 1L)
USD/CHF -80 pips (2L)
USD/CAD -160 pips (4L)
----------------------------------------------
Since Start
Pips Total | P/L Total |
+65 | +$18.94 |
Trade Breakdown
USD/JPY +264 pips (13W 7L)
GBP/USD +68 pips (23W 20L)
AUS/USD +41 pips (23W 21L)
USD/CAD -100 pips (12W 12L)
USD/CHF -208 pips (10W 10L)
----------------------------------------------
Daily Results
Day 30: 4 Trades (3W 1L) +77 pips, +$72.5
Day 31: 3 Trades (2W 1L) +130 pips, +$86.06
Day 32: 5 Trades (3W 2L) +56 pips, +$60.04 Non-Farm Payroll day, USD bear trap? (1-4)
Day 33: 1 Trade (1L) -40 pips, -$35.89
Day 34: 4 Trades (2W 2L) +11 pips, +$37.11
Day 35: 6 Trades (3W 3L) -78 pips, -$77.34
View December 2007 Trade History
View November 2007 Trade History
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Tough End to a Good Month
Happy New Year, everyone!
The last few days of 2007 were tough days for trading the forex. It made very difficult to follow the market as the USD dollar sentiment jumped wildly from one extreme to the other extreme. As a result, both my expert advisor as well as my swing strategy were not fairing well amid volatile market conditions. Anyway, I am still glad that they managed to end the month on the positive side with +223 and +96 pips respectively. It is no doubt that the markets can be cruel at time.
To sum up my forex trading year of 2007, surviving the game and learning new tricks would be the main themes. Unlike last year, I should be able to carry some positive momentum into the new year and thus having better chances for a bright start and a better performing year.
Once again, wish we all have a prosperous year in 2008 together !
The last few days of 2007 were tough days for trading the forex. It made very difficult to follow the market as the USD dollar sentiment jumped wildly from one extreme to the other extreme. As a result, both my expert advisor as well as my swing strategy were not fairing well amid volatile market conditions. Anyway, I am still glad that they managed to end the month on the positive side with +223 and +96 pips respectively. It is no doubt that the markets can be cruel at time.
To sum up my forex trading year of 2007, surviving the game and learning new tricks would be the main themes. Unlike last year, I should be able to carry some positive momentum into the new year and thus having better chances for a bright start and a better performing year.
Once again, wish we all have a prosperous year in 2008 together !
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