Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Profits vs. Drawdowns for Bogie, FAPS and Tracer EAs

In general, June was a very good month for trading. There were a a lot of sizable moves intraday and overnight reactions which stirred up the forex markets. Euro (EUR/USD) was the most interesting pair to watch since it recorded its historical high back in late April. Since then, it has entered into a consolidation phase.

I have three expert advisors which all auto-trade the same EUR/USD market, i.e. Bogie, Forex Autopilot (FAPS) and Forex Tracer, but on different time periods. I will show you how they all fair in the month of June. For comparison, all three were assigned with with same account level at the start of the month. Initial deposit: $1000; Fixed lot size: 0.1 lot. Here are their end results:

1st place: Bogie-NN-v8 end balance $2434 (143.4%) Approx. +1434 pips
2nd place: FAPS end-balance $1169 (+16.9%) Approx. +169 pips
3rd place: Tracer end balance $903 (-9.7%) Approx. -97 pips

EA Performance (Jun' 08)
Bogie
Tracer
FAPS
Time period
H1
M30
M1
Stop loss used
200
250
---
Absolute drawdown (% from initial deposit)
-3.6
-24.9
-28.7
Maximal drawdown (in term of pips)<100>250
>500
Final profits (in term of pips)
+1434
-91
+169

Final remarks:

1) Bogie-NN-v8 had a very strong month in June as it outperformed others during this market phase. At many occasions, it did superbly by selling at the tops and buying at the lows.

2) Compared to previous month results, FAPS was slightly underperformed this month, but its overall results since the start of the year were impressive. June was the fifth profitable month of this year.

3) Tracer was recently launched. Unlike FAPS, it uses a fixed stop loss level of 250 pips, thus giving you the comfort of knowing its risk limit. Unfortunately, June was a volatile month which in turn resulted the EA to hit the bump twice. Despite all that, Tracer EA showed great resilience and nearly made it back to the positive.

I am not sure what July will bring, but i have high hopes on three of them. If the current trend continues, Bogie is the one to look out for. If the Euro continues to gain momentum towards the upside, FAPS and Tracer should be back to exhibiting their real strengths.

4 comments:

Kote said...

Lloyd,

Thank you for the valuable analysis report.

Kotaro

Lloyd said...

I am going to evaluate them for another month. Stay tune :-)

ICG said...

Thanks! This is really helpful. Most sites overhype EAs or go to the other extreme and say they're all scams. It's nice to see the real-time performance comparison. One request: could you track Forex Funnel? It appears to be from the same folks who sell Tracer.

From looking at both sites (Tracer and Funnel), the Funnel's backtest looks better. It covers a much longer period and has a smaller drawdown. I've heard its real-time performance has been better, too, but can't confirm this.

Lloyd said...

Sure mkeys. Before I get to Funnel, I would like to give my further thoughts on Tracer. Check my full reply here.