Wednesday Results

Conservative play: -5
Aggressive play: -5

Great, some last minute actions after sending out the final signal of the day. Most of you could probably get out of the EUR-USD position close to breakeven or even fetch 1-2 pips on the plus side. I have only recognised this one play for the whole day, however, it didn't 'move' as expected in this quiet market.

Market pulse:

"The ECB is on a tightening spree, ECB policy makers are going to tighten a few more times. At the same time, the Fed is pausing and eventually going to lower rates. Rate differentials are in favor of the euro against the dollar.''

Trade The News 01-06-07 (Non-Farm Payroll)

"There was an initial spike as people saw the headline figure (Non-Farm Payroll) but the dollar quickly fell back after they realised it hasn't really changed anything".

Soon after the news, my long EUR/USD position was immediately stopped out at 1.3427 for -11 pips due to the stronger than expected job report. I immediately reentered another long position at 1.3423 (don't ask me exactly why ... may be partly due to buying at dip, not giving up etc. ). I noticed that the PCE report was actually showing a tamer rate of inflation. My position was gaining quick on my 2nd entry and I was able to exit for +35 pips just 4 minutes later. Since then, I have been sitting on the side line.

EUR/USD 1-min chart

Trading update: I am very close to my account target of Level 6 after hitting level 5 on Tuesday.

European Session 29-05-07

"The trend is in the euro's favor. The main driver is the rate sentiment in the euro zone, where the market is pricing in more tightening."

I hit my next account target (i.e. level 5) before the open of European session. As soon as I woke up this morning, I saw a golden opportunity and hence quickly exited my last week's open short EUR/JPY position at 163.25 for a gain of 34 pips. It was a ghastly experience holding on to this short position over the long weekend holidays. The position was in red most of the time and yesterday was actually quite painful watching over the meaningless price movement due to the market inactivity.

No trade made in this session. But look at this EUR/JPY. One-way traffic. What a reversal! I was fortunate as I did not hesitate to book my profit earlier.

EUR/JPY 5-min chart

European Session 21-05-07

Sneaky! I managed to exit my short USD/CHF at 1.2280 for -7 pips loss. However, I just could not able to reverse my dollar-bearish view yet to re-enter long on USD/CHF and subsequently sell EUR/USD at 1.3486 (even though I received confirmation from the technical chart). What I did was selling EUR/JPY at 163.60 instead, netting only +14 pips, but missing the action of a bigger move.

EUR/USD 5-min chart


Did this move (Euro 60-pips drop) catch anyone by surprise?

Session rating: - ; Level: unchanged at 2 star