Forex Biases for July 30

Price consolidation. Markets are out of sync at the moment. My current daily biases on the following markets are as follows:

USD/CAD UP
USD/CHF DOWN
USD/JPY DOWN
EUR/USD DOWN
GBP/USD DOWN
NZD/USD DOWN
AUS/USD DOWN
AUS/JPY DOWN
CHF/JPY DOWN
GBP/JPY DOWN
EUR/JPY DOWN
EUR/CHF DOWN
EUR/CAD UP
EUR/GBP UP

I played a short trade on CHF/JPY today with +22 on half of the position and stopped out for nothing on the other half after an unusual price swing. Total: +0.55R. I had an unrealised 34 pips gain earlier, ouch! Meanwhile, I am predicting a tighter trading range for tomorrow and even the day after tomorrow. Then, there should be some playable breakout actions.

Done for the Week +246 pips

Here are my trading results:
No. of trades: 4 (all with 2 lots)
Win rate: 100%
Conservative strategy (exit 1 lot): +6, +36, +20,+27
Aggressive strategy (hold 1 lot): +6, +40, +63, +48

I didn't put on any trades on Thursday and Friday - been hesitated a lot these days and missed some playable actions. Not sure it was a good or bad thing. Nowadays, I started to think hard about my entry levels since I decided to use a tighter 20-pip stop loss on each trade (i.e 40-pip with 2 lots). My return (R) for this week trades was therefore 0.3R, 1.9R, 2.07R, 1. 87R respectively.

As I am still perfecting my trading style, I have temporarily put my real-time signal service on hold. Thanks for your expressed interests so far. In the mean time, I am determined in moving forward with this short-term trading model for growing my account size and for fulfilling the milestones as set in the 1-million forex project.

10 July Results

Conservative play: -25
Aggressive play: -30

A high volume day. Possibly bankers vs. bankers trading each other as Fed chairman Bernanke will be in focus later today.

In summary, the market sent out false signals in the opening session, then did a reversal and never looked back. By mid morning, I managed to recognise those volume spikes and on hindsight I should have followed the money flow. But I resisted (being too cautious). As a result, I purposely stayed away from the Majors and put on a conservative trade shorting the AUS/USD but it didn't pay off. At least, I gave the position a fair chance, holding nearly 6 hours without being stopped out. However, it was the wrong day to support the US dollar. Not a chance for recovery as the big market players managed to trap you in firmly.

Market pulse:

"The theme today is broader dollar weakness. Concern that the outlook for the riskiest U.S. mortgages will worsen is negative for the dollar. Lack of action from the Fed, no cuts or hikes, is also negative for the dollar.''

NFP Day Results

Conservative strategy: +30 ( Approx. 3 hours holding time)
Aggressive strategy: +5

Weekly pip-count: +96 pips for conservative strategy, +140 pips for aggressive strategy

It's a shame that we could not capitalise more on this aggressive play. However, please bear in mind that volatile price swings are quite common in the event of major economic releases. And it is partly my fault too as I should have advised you to keep as many easy pips as possible during the offering of a news event. Basically, a wrong timing for being aggressive.

FYI, I will be sending out my invitations for you to receive the real-time alerts of my trading signals/ideas this weekend. If you are interested, just drop me an e-mail.

Market Pulse:

"This (Non-farm Payroll Report) confirmed the U.S. economy is much better than most of the dollar bears thought. As long as we generate 100,000 jobs a month, there's no chance for the Fed to cut rates."

Wednesday Results

Conservative play: -5
Aggressive play: -5

Great, some last minute actions after sending out the final signal of the day. Most of you could probably get out of the EUR-USD position close to breakeven or even fetch 1-2 pips on the plus side. I have only recognised this one play for the whole day, however, it didn't 'move' as expected in this quiet market.

Market pulse:

"The ECB is on a tightening spree, ECB policy makers are going to tighten a few more times. At the same time, the Fed is pausing and eventually going to lower rates. Rate differentials are in favor of the euro against the dollar.''

Tuesday Results

Conservative strategy: +16 pips
Aggressive strategy: + 36 pips

I have summarised the signals for today in here. FYI, I didn't get the expected price action in the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY markets. Only choppy action. I had to exit earlier at +1 and -11 respectively.

Market pulse:

"There is an underlying pattern of increasing volatility evolving. Dollar-yen volatility should lead the way."

Monday Results

Conservative strategy: +55 pips
Aggressive strategy: +104 pips

Examples of my daily swing signals can be found here.

Market pulse:

"The dollar bearish mode in the market is back, it's the story about better growth and rising interest rates elsewhere.''