This post was brought to you by Hector of 3SMA Forex Trading Course.
As usually, I like to post whenever I find anything on my charts that might raise my eyebrow. Well, there’s something on EUR/USD that I have been following for a few days, I took some notes on my Forex notepad and I figured I could share them with you all.
Please take a look at the EUR/USD monthly chart here below. As we all know, this pair has plummeted through the floor since mid-July, all the way from 1.60 to 1.38 where it’s recently bottomed few days ago. It seems like that
1.38 area is quite a key-level from a technical point of view because we have three elements of support stacking up together: a long-term trendline, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the previous major swing high. So, all in all, we have a bunch of elements of support around that area that might hold price above.
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But what’s truly interesting is that price is indeed reacting to that heavy support already. In fact, EUR/USD has already bounced 500 pips and it’s currently sitting at 1.44. Moreover, the monthly candle for September is shaping up as a massive bullish hammer which is usually regarded by traders as a bullish reversal signal.
So, what am I getting down to? well, I believe that
EUR/USD has reached a decision-taking junction in the long-term charts that might dictate this pair’s overall behavior for the following months: if by the end of September the monthly candle does finally close as a bullish hammer, many traders will be in the mood to begin searching for long positions and EUR/USD might begin to climb to new heights. In the other hand, if EUR/USD fails to respect that 1.38 support area and dives through it, I am sure many stoploss orders will get triggered and it’s free fall from there until the next support area at 1.33.
A word of caution though ==> I am sure you folks are aware of the current tumultuous times we’re going through in the global financial markets right now: Lehman Brothers going belly up, AIG being rescued by Uncle Sam in the last minute, England’s Halifax bank running for the hills, Madonna releasing a new album, etc… Quite frankly, no-one knows what’s going on right now and no-one knows whether the whole financial status will blow up in our noses. Be VERY careful if you’re actively trading because it’s getting very ugly out there!
-HECTOR-
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From HectorTrader: EUR/US...High-Probability Forex Trade (Aug 12, 2008)