Short USD/CAD @ 1.0462

A swing setup. Use 20-pip stop from the opening level. Price target below 1.0402.

13 July Results

Mixed results for today. I didn't know what to trade for the last two days. Somehow today, I had four trade ideas. I started the day with some quick losses: -30 pips on short NZD/USD - should have waited for further confirmation but I entered this trade too hurriedly. Also, -12 pips on long USD/CHF as I took a small loss. Then, I had to reverse my USD/CHF bias and turned into a short position at 1.2036 by sticking to my system. It rewarded me with +29 pips. Then, it got better. I followed another good signal in long EUR/CAD trade which in the end yielded +40 pips.

To be honest, forex trading is a real tough business. I was a bit stunt by this week's volatile market and hence, I didn't manage to deliver my many trading signals to you as promised (I only sent out one). Things should get better from here . I will try my best to keep my promise and to deliver you good quality free trading signals next week.

11 July No Trade

I decide not to trade today, although this is an exciting time when prices are running into multi-year high especially for the pound and euro. Instead, I spend some time running my system on other alternative markets such as NZD/USD, EUR/CAD, AUS/JPY, and I really like their results. For your interest, I have summarised my overall trading strategy as follows: looking for breakouts, making sure the market is active, being patient, entering at price pull back near the support/resistance level, using reasonable stops, booking partial profit, never let winners turning into losers, and also hopefully, riding on winning positions for bigger profit.

Market pulse:

"The dollar has broken lower against a broad range of currencies...the apparent catalyst is an escalation of concern regarding the US housing market outlook."

"As long as the market views these current problems (in the US housing sector) as being isolated to the US then we would expect the dollar to remain under pressure, with the euro likely to target the 1.40 usd area over coming weeks and the pound looking set to achieve our target of 2.03/2.04 usd earlier than anticipated."

10 July Results

Conservative play: -25
Aggressive play: -30

A high volume day. Possibly bankers vs. bankers trading each other as Fed chairman Bernanke will be in focus later today.

In summary, the market sent out false signals in the opening session, then did a reversal and never looked back. By mid morning, I managed to recognise those volume spikes and on hindsight I should have followed the money flow. But I resisted (being too cautious). As a result, I purposely stayed away from the Majors and put on a conservative trade shorting the AUS/USD but it didn't pay off. At least, I gave the position a fair chance, holding nearly 6 hours without being stopped out. However, it was the wrong day to support the US dollar. Not a chance for recovery as the big market players managed to trap you in firmly.

Market pulse:

"The theme today is broader dollar weakness. Concern that the outlook for the riskiest U.S. mortgages will worsen is negative for the dollar. Lack of action from the Fed, no cuts or hikes, is also negative for the dollar.''

09 July No Trade

One of those days. Markets stay in very tight ranges. The only potential play I spotted was GBP/USD. I really liked the bullish action in the morning and was willing to enter long at any price dip. There was a potential entry at 1.15 pm, but the price retraced just too quickly. I assumed other traders having the same thought as me - all waiting for the opportunity to go long as well. It was impossible for me to issue that signal quick enough to you guys to take advantage of the situation. So I waited past 2 pm. And I usually don't favour entering new positions after 2 pm London time as there is so little time left for any significant price movement to happen or to recoup any losses if price doesn't move as predicted. Hence, a zero action day.

GBP/USD 5-min chart


Market pulse:

"There is nothing to alter the trend of carry trade at this point. If there is no clear signal of future rate hikes, people will continue to put on carry trades, and that will weaken the yen.''

FYI, I also include USD-JPY and EUR-JPY markets in our trading portfolio. I am not biased and willing to go either long or short depending on the daily technical situations. Let's be patience as opportunities will present themselves when the time is right.

NFP Day Results

Conservative strategy: +30 ( Approx. 3 hours holding time)
Aggressive strategy: +5

Weekly pip-count: +96 pips for conservative strategy, +140 pips for aggressive strategy

It's a shame that we could not capitalise more on this aggressive play. However, please bear in mind that volatile price swings are quite common in the event of major economic releases. And it is partly my fault too as I should have advised you to keep as many easy pips as possible during the offering of a news event. Basically, a wrong timing for being aggressive.

FYI, I will be sending out my invitations for you to receive the real-time alerts of my trading signals/ideas this weekend. If you are interested, just drop me an e-mail.

Market Pulse:

"This (Non-farm Payroll Report) confirmed the U.S. economy is much better than most of the dollar bears thought. As long as we generate 100,000 jobs a month, there's no chance for the Fed to cut rates."

Thursday No Trade

No trades for today.

Rightly so. Markets behaved 'erratically' today as the volumes crept back in after yesterday quiet market. I wish we had at least one signal to capitalise on today's fast action, but unfortunately it wasn't the case. At least, we stayed out of of the wild price swings.

Wednesday Results

Conservative play: -5
Aggressive play: -5

Great, some last minute actions after sending out the final signal of the day. Most of you could probably get out of the EUR-USD position close to breakeven or even fetch 1-2 pips on the plus side. I have only recognised this one play for the whole day, however, it didn't 'move' as expected in this quiet market.

Market pulse:

"The ECB is on a tightening spree, ECB policy makers are going to tighten a few more times. At the same time, the Fed is pausing and eventually going to lower rates. Rate differentials are in favor of the euro against the dollar.''

Tuesday Results

Conservative strategy: +16 pips
Aggressive strategy: + 36 pips

I have summarised the signals for today in here. FYI, I didn't get the expected price action in the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY markets. Only choppy action. I had to exit earlier at +1 and -11 respectively.

Market pulse:

"There is an underlying pattern of increasing volatility evolving. Dollar-yen volatility should lead the way."

Monday Results

Conservative strategy: +55 pips
Aggressive strategy: +104 pips

Examples of my daily swing signals can be found here.

Market pulse:

"The dollar bearish mode in the market is back, it's the story about better growth and rising interest rates elsewhere.''