Since the day I started my own expert advisor trading (about 9 trading days ago), I haven't traded manually using my usual technical chart setup. All these days, I just sit back, relaxed and watched my EA in action.
My EA has been very active since the start and has already traded about 50 trades across 5 different markets, averaging 5 trades per day, but unfortunately also losing me on average 35 pips per day at present! At time, I was quite happy about its consistency in trade execution, but most of the time, I found myself disappointed due to its (lack of) performance and some other trading platform issues. Luckily, I was only trading in mini lot size.
Anyway, I will be post-analysing those results over the weekend. And most probably, I will continue with the system for some time to come as it is still too early for me to judge.
My EA trade history is now up-to-date.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Currency Market Review 11-28-2007
For the past few days, currency market faces tug of war between the carry reversal and the resuming of carry trades. Today was a typical high volatility day.
Tony at fxstreet managed to give a detailed account of today's price action:
(Make sure you check out the rest of his story here)
Tony at fxstreet managed to give a detailed account of today's price action:
** EUR/USD is now floating around support 1.4750 after completing a retracement off the support area 1.4720-25, after a 240-pip decline from 1.4965 highs.
** USD/CHF behaviour today was largely driven by the maniac EUR/CHF rise.
** GBP/USD today behaved as one of the 'carry cows'.
** the name of the game today was in the JPY and CHF crosses, who advanced like maniacs across the board.
Although I was not watching the market, I did quite a bit of trading today (albeit not directly by myself).
# Expert Advisor Auto Trading (Day 7)
AUS/USD -30,-30
GBP/USD -40, -40, +85
USD/CHF -85
USD/CAD +85
7 trades (-55 pips)
# Signal Software Trading
USD/JPY +71
USD/CAD +56
2 Trades (+127 pips)
In summary, it was another tough day for my expert advisor. AUS/USD has been underperforming for two days in a row. On inspection, it should be a winner today. One of the long position was stopped out for -30 pips exactly at the lowest price of the day before jumping more than 100++ pips. I missed the whole move by just a pip. Do you believe in my bad luck(or should I say, EA's) ?
Meanwhile, I had a better day in signal trading.
# Expert Advisor Auto Trading (Day 7)
AUS/USD -30,-30
GBP/USD -40, -40, +85
USD/CHF -85
USD/CAD +85
7 trades (-55 pips)
# Signal Software Trading
USD/JPY +71
USD/CAD +56
2 Trades (+127 pips)
In summary, it was another tough day for my expert advisor. AUS/USD has been underperforming for two days in a row. On inspection, it should be a winner today. One of the long position was stopped out for -30 pips exactly at the lowest price of the day before jumping more than 100++ pips. I missed the whole move by just a pip. Do you believe in my bad luck(or should I say, EA's) ?
Meanwhile, I had a better day in signal trading.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Revamp of the Leaderboard on Zulutrade (2)
It has been 3 weeks since Zulutrade introduced its new ranking system to promote good performance and feasible trading strategies. Below are the current top 10 signal providers on Zulutrade. Long gone are the high risk systems such as fx-millionaire, nirvana forex, malibutfx and etc.Top of the class is Tecnofinanzas, a forex strategist from Spain. Basically, the system uses time-based trade entries and exits. For example, trades are running from 8 am prompt (UK time) to 12 noon for one session. Then, trades are usually reversed in the other direction at 12 pm and closed at 8pm no matter what outcome. An easy-to-follow strategy and with surprisingly good results at time.
The other two systems that I like are Kante and Trader FX.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
7 Types of Forex Blog That I Read
Here is the list of forex blogs that I read often. I take the courtesy of separating them into different categories which I think best describe their purposes and strength.
#1 Live forex trades & analysis
Tony at fxstreet.com
#2 On the economic front
Adam at forexblog.org
Grace at gracecheng.com
John at upticksfxworld.blogspot.com
Kathy at kathylien.com
#3 On improving trading psychology
Pipslow at babypips.com
Simon at simonsupertrader.blogspot.com
#4 Forex trading with a goal
Chaffcombe at futurestech.com.au
Richard at forexproject.com
Soultrader at soultraderdiary.blogspot.com
#5 Forex daytrading summary
Colin at forexspirit.com
Gav at tradergav.com
Fx at forexintradaytrading.blogspot.com
Jody at j-ongfx.blogspot.com
#6 Forex system review
Brian at forexkungfu.com
CK at ckowyong.com
Hector at hectortrader.com
Wayne at fxstreet.com
#7 On forex learning and trading strategies
Lloyd at scoutforex.com
FYI, I have also included myself in the list. It is my intention to take this opportunity to compare and reflect my real interests and niche in forex trading. If you happen to be a forex blogger too, I would recommend you to do the same. There are always new informative forex blogs springing up somewhere in the blogosphere. If you wish your blog to be known, just post a comment to state which category your blog falls under (e.g. #no, your_name, blog_title, other details). I am happy to have you on the list.
#1 Live forex trades & analysis
Tony at fxstreet.com
#2 On the economic front
Adam at forexblog.org
Grace at gracecheng.com
John at upticksfxworld.blogspot.com
Kathy at kathylien.com
#3 On improving trading psychology
Pipslow at babypips.com
Simon at simonsupertrader.blogspot.com
#4 Forex trading with a goal
Chaffcombe at futurestech.com.au
Richard at forexproject.com
Soultrader at soultraderdiary.blogspot.com
#5 Forex daytrading summary
Colin at forexspirit.com
Gav at tradergav.com
Fx at forexintradaytrading.blogspot.com
Jody at j-ongfx.blogspot.com
#6 Forex system review
Brian at forexkungfu.com
CK at ckowyong.com
Hector at hectortrader.com
Wayne at fxstreet.com
#7 On forex learning and trading strategies
Lloyd at scoutforex.com
FYI, I have also included myself in the list. It is my intention to take this opportunity to compare and reflect my real interests and niche in forex trading. If you happen to be a forex blogger too, I would recommend you to do the same. There are always new informative forex blogs springing up somewhere in the blogosphere. If you wish your blog to be known, just post a comment to state which category your blog falls under (e.g. #no, your_name, blog_title, other details). I am happy to have you on the list.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
First Optimisation of My Expert Advisor (1)
End of Day 4
My expert advisor auto-trading fund is currently in drawdown by the end of day 4. This forced me to make a detailed analysis of all the closing trades since day 1. I have realised that the GBP/USD is actually underperforming and it is mostly responsible for all of the incurred trading losses.
Optimisation Results
To troubleshoot, I performed some backtesing for the period (1 Oct to present). The results have suggested that I might have overlooked 1 or 2 important system parameters for the GBP/USD market, i.e. the system win-rate and the stop-loss margin.
The following results are based on 1 full lot trading at any one time and with 5% risk per trade:
# Original EA with 30 pips stop loss
(65 Trades / 49.23% win-rate / Overall growth 125.8%)
# Optimised EA with 40 pips stop loss
(58 Trades / 58.62% win-rate / Overall growth 128.9% )
# Optimised EA with 50 pips stop loss
(55 Trades / 63.6% win-rate / Overall growth 91% )
Obviously, the recent 3-4 trading days have been hard for the GBP/USD. Based on these results alone, I made my first parameter change in the EA. The reasons are simple: to achieve a higher system win-rate and a smoother equity curve.
Future Reference
For the purpose of comparison only, my first EA will actually put me in the Top 15 of the 2007 Automated Trading Championship at this point of writing. Note that the participants are allowed to open up to 3 trades simultaneously. I will need to incorporate that in the future.
Last but not least, here is the equity curve of current leader in the competition.
(For the same period, EUR-USD instead of GBP-USD / 270 Trades / 68.5% win-rate / Overall growth 765% )
My expert advisor auto-trading fund is currently in drawdown by the end of day 4. This forced me to make a detailed analysis of all the closing trades since day 1. I have realised that the GBP/USD is actually underperforming and it is mostly responsible for all of the incurred trading losses.
Optimisation Results
To troubleshoot, I performed some backtesing for the period (1 Oct to present). The results have suggested that I might have overlooked 1 or 2 important system parameters for the GBP/USD market, i.e. the system win-rate and the stop-loss margin.
The following results are based on 1 full lot trading at any one time and with 5% risk per trade:
# Original EA with 30 pips stop loss
(65 Trades / 49.23% win-rate / Overall growth 125.8%)
# Optimised EA with 40 pips stop loss
(58 Trades / 58.62% win-rate / Overall growth 128.9% )
# Optimised EA with 50 pips stop loss
(55 Trades / 63.6% win-rate / Overall growth 91% )
Obviously, the recent 3-4 trading days have been hard for the GBP/USD. Based on these results alone, I made my first parameter change in the EA. The reasons are simple: to achieve a higher system win-rate and a smoother equity curve.
Future Reference
For the purpose of comparison only, my first EA will actually put me in the Top 15 of the 2007 Automated Trading Championship at this point of writing. Note that the participants are allowed to open up to 3 trades simultaneously. I will need to incorporate that in the future.
Last but not least, here is the equity curve of current leader in the competition.
(For the same period, EUR-USD instead of GBP-USD / 270 Trades / 68.5% win-rate / Overall growth 765% )
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Forex Killer Review: The Updated Forex Killer Signal Software
Here is my second forex killer review after the recent software update to version 2.14:
About two weeks ago, the developer released a new version of the forex killer signal software. I believe he wanted to improve its original signal algorithm to even better after seeing some tremendous sales within the first month of its launch. I totally agree with the improved functionalities to simplify the data input process, but somehow I become unfamiliar with its updated signal algorithm as I am not able to justify/understand its signal-generation process.
H1 Breakout System
I like forex killer signal software at first sight because its original entry system or algorithm is quite similar to my own forex system. Its algorithm basically strikes a cord with my forex trading approach, i.e. finding a breakout + trend following + using H1 chart. This system is very useful and has been a success to me in the past.
Testing of New Signal Algorithm
Knowing the system's great potential and since the forex killer algorithm (which based upon this approach) is easily available in the public domain, I have started running another blog to recommend this trading approach to anyone who is interested and willing to invest in the forex trading. At present, the new signal algorithm appears to be different from the original one. Therefore, I am no longer sure what the current trade entries are based upon, but I know them well previously (e.g. here, here and here).
Two Instead of One?
To be fair, I have already applied the new algorithm in my trial and so far the results are mixed (see here, here and here). And to the developer's credit, I can understand why he wanted to improve the signal software and also believe in his reasonings for the update. But please bear in mind that no system will ever satisfy every end of the market conditions. Therefore, I shall find out in the next few days on how to best use the 'two' forex killer software. And btw, I still prefer the old signal algorithm due to its simplicity and effectiveness.
About two weeks ago, the developer released a new version of the forex killer signal software. I believe he wanted to improve its original signal algorithm to even better after seeing some tremendous sales within the first month of its launch. I totally agree with the improved functionalities to simplify the data input process, but somehow I become unfamiliar with its updated signal algorithm as I am not able to justify/understand its signal-generation process.
H1 Breakout System
I like forex killer signal software at first sight because its original entry system or algorithm is quite similar to my own forex system. Its algorithm basically strikes a cord with my forex trading approach, i.e. finding a breakout + trend following + using H1 chart. This system is very useful and has been a success to me in the past.
Testing of New Signal Algorithm
Knowing the system's great potential and since the forex killer algorithm (which based upon this approach) is easily available in the public domain, I have started running another blog to recommend this trading approach to anyone who is interested and willing to invest in the forex trading. At present, the new signal algorithm appears to be different from the original one. Therefore, I am no longer sure what the current trade entries are based upon, but I know them well previously (e.g. here, here and here).
Two Instead of One?
To be fair, I have already applied the new algorithm in my trial and so far the results are mixed (see here, here and here). And to the developer's credit, I can understand why he wanted to improve the signal software and also believe in his reasonings for the update. But please bear in mind that no system will ever satisfy every end of the market conditions. Therefore, I shall find out in the next few days on how to best use the 'two' forex killer software. And btw, I still prefer the old signal algorithm due to its simplicity and effectiveness.
(If the first software version is not included in your recent purchase, simply send me an email to let me know.)
Related posts:
Q & A with Andreas Kirchberger
A Simple Forex Killer Day Trading Strategy
How to Cope with Price Volatility and News Event
Friday, November 23, 2007
In a League of Its Own
2007 Automated Trading Championship
Olexandr Topchylo (Better) is currently leading the MT4 Automated Trading Championships of 2007. And obviously, he is in a league of its own (see figure below).
With less than 20 trading days left in the competition, it is almost impossible for other competitors to catch up. Here is the Interview with Olexandr Topchylo (Better).
Related post: Automated Trading Championship 2007 2nd Place (Wackena System)
Olexandr Topchylo (Better) is currently leading the MT4 Automated Trading Championships of 2007. And obviously, he is in a league of its own (see figure below).
With less than 20 trading days left in the competition, it is almost impossible for other competitors to catch up. Here is the Interview with Olexandr Topchylo (Better).
Related post: Automated Trading Championship 2007 2nd Place (Wackena System)
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
My First Expert Advisor Trading Review
Despite a great start and some promising results from my EA, the system soon endured a string of losses which at the end erased all of its gains from overnight.
Glitch and Fast Markets
Part of the trading losses were caused by a glitch in the trading platform during today's fast market action (as 200-pip moves were seen in both GBP/USD and AUS/USD markets). My live data feed seems to have slowed a few ticks and, believe it or not, it did make a difference to the final trading outcome. I have already compared my live data feed with other running platform and there was definitely an issue with my trading platform/processor.
Yen Trading in New Territory
On the other hand, the system also suffered one significant losses due to a long USD/JPY position. The currency pair was breaking into new trading territory today. The yen rose to the highest level in more than two years against the dollar. It was actually quite an expected result as I knew from the record of backtesting that my system does not like new trading ranges.
*View my EA trading history.
Glitch and Fast Markets
Part of the trading losses were caused by a glitch in the trading platform during today's fast market action (as 200-pip moves were seen in both GBP/USD and AUS/USD markets). My live data feed seems to have slowed a few ticks and, believe it or not, it did make a difference to the final trading outcome. I have already compared my live data feed with other running platform and there was definitely an issue with my trading platform/processor.
Yen Trading in New Territory
On the other hand, the system also suffered one significant losses due to a long USD/JPY position. The currency pair was breaking into new trading territory today. The yen rose to the highest level in more than two years against the dollar. It was actually quite an expected result as I knew from the record of backtesting that my system does not like new trading ranges.
*View my EA trading history.
My EA Trade History
November 2007
Performance Overview
USD/CAD +96 pips (4W 2L) Best performer
AUS/USD -48 pips (6W 11L)
USD/JPY -85 pips (1L)
GBP/USD -129 pips (7W 11L)
USD/CHF -148 pips (3W 3L) Worst peformer
*I made a mistake in the EA for GBP/USD and the problem has since been rectified. Hopefully it can turnaround before the fund run out. (11-25)
Daily Results
Day 1: 1 Trade -30 pips
Day 2: 13 Trades -107 pips Fast markets, glitch and pre-thanksgiving (11-21)
Day 3: 4 Trades +7 pips
Day 4: 6 Trades -45 pips Lows in USD/CHF and USD/JPY markets (11-23)
Day 5: 5 Trades -33 pips GBP/USD took another hit again (11-26)
Day 6: 4 Trades +53 pips 2 straight losses in AUS/USD (11-27)
Day 7: 7 Trades -55 pips Currency market review (11-28)
Day 8: 3 Trades -40 pips
Day 9: 5 Trades -64 pips Not a great start (11-30)
| Entry Date/Day | Currency | L/S | R | Lot | Pips | P/L |
| 2007-11-20 (1) | AUS/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-21 (2) | AUS/USD | S | 2 | 0.1 | 60 | $60 |
| 2007-11-21 | AUS/USD | S | 0.43 | 0.1 | 13 | $13 |
| 2007-11-20 | GBP/USD | S | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-21 | AUS/USD | S | 2 | 0.1 | 60 | $60 |
| 2007-11-20 | GBP/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-21 | USD/JPY | L | -1 | 0.1 | -85 | -$78.36 |
| 2007-11-21 | AUS/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-21 | GBP/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-21 | AUS/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-20 | GBP/USD | L | 0.17 | 0.1 | 5 | $5 |
| 2007-11-21 | GBP/USD | S | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-20 | USD/CHF | S | 0.59 | 0.1 | 50 | $45.37 |
| 2007-11-21 | GBP/USD | S | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-21 (3) | USD/CAD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -85 | -$86.74 |
| 2007-11-22 | AUS/USD | L | 2.03 | 0.1 | 61 | $61 |
| 2007-11-22 | USD/CAD | L | 0.13 | 0.1 | 11 | $11.19 |
| 2007-11-22 | GBP/USD | S | 0.67 | 0.1 | 20 | $20 |
| 2007-11-22 (4) | GBP/USD | S | -1.07 | 0.1 | -32 | -$32 |
| 2007-11-22 | USD/CHF | L | -1 | 0.1 | -85 | -$77.66 |
| 2007-11-23 | AUS/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-23 | USD/CHF | L | 0.59 | 0.1 | 50 | $45.44 |
| 2007-11-23 | GBP/USD | L | -1.1 | 0.1 | -33 | -$33 |
| 2007-11-23 | USD/CAD | L | 1 | 0.1 | 85 | $85.90 |
| 2007-11-26 (5) | AUS/USD | S | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-23 | USD/CHF | L | 0.08 | 0.1 | 7 | $6.35 |
| 2007-11-26 | GBP/USD | S | -1 | 0.1 | -40 | -$40 |
| 2007-11-26 | AUS/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-26 | AUS/USD | S | 2 | 0.1 | 60 | $60 |
| 2007-11-27 (6) | AUS/USD | S | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-23 | USD/CAD | L | 1 | 0.1 | 85 | $85.28 |
| 2007-11-26 | GBP/USD | S | 0.33 | 0.1 | 28 | $28 |
| 2007-11-27 | AUS/USD | S | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-27 (7) | AUS/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-27 | GBP/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -40 | -$40 |
| 2007-11-28 | AUS/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| 2007-11-28 | GBP/USD | S | 2.13 | 0.1 | 85 | $85 |
| 2007-11-28 | USD/CHF | S | -1 | 0.1 | -85 | -$76.06 |
| 2007-11-28 | GBP/USD | S | -1 | 0.1 | -40 | -$40 |
| 2007-11-28 | USD/CAD | S | 1 | 0.1 | 85 | $85.89 |
| 2007-11-28 (8) | GBP/USD | S | 2.13 | 0.1 | 85 | $85 |
| 2007-11-29 | GBP/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -40 | -$40 |
| 2007-11-28 | USD/CAD | S | -1 | 0.1 | -85 | -$85.47 |
| 2007-11-29 (9) | AUS/USD | L | 0.93 | 0.1 | 28 | $28 |
| 2007-11-29 | GBP/USD | L | 0.05 | 0.1 | 2 | $2 |
| 2007-11-30 | GBP/USD | L | 0.53 | 0.1 | 21 | $21 |
| 2007-11-29 | USD/CHF | S | -1 | 0.1 | -85 | -$75.43 |
| 2007-11-30 | AUS/USD | L | -1 | 0.1 | -30 | -$30 |
| Pips Total | P/L Total |
| -314 | -$301.86 |
Performance Overview
USD/CAD +96 pips (4W 2L) Best performer
AUS/USD -48 pips (6W 11L)
USD/JPY -85 pips (1L)
GBP/USD -129 pips (7W 11L)
USD/CHF -148 pips (3W 3L) Worst peformer
*I made a mistake in the EA for GBP/USD and the problem has since been rectified. Hopefully it can turnaround before the fund run out. (11-25)
Daily Results
Day 1: 1 Trade -30 pips
Day 2: 13 Trades -107 pips Fast markets, glitch and pre-thanksgiving (11-21)
Day 3: 4 Trades +7 pips
Day 4: 6 Trades -45 pips Lows in USD/CHF and USD/JPY markets (11-23)
Day 5: 5 Trades -33 pips GBP/USD took another hit again (11-26)
Day 6: 4 Trades +53 pips 2 straight losses in AUS/USD (11-27)
Day 7: 7 Trades -55 pips Currency market review (11-28)
Day 8: 3 Trades -40 pips
Day 9: 5 Trades -64 pips Not a great start (11-30)
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
My Expert Advisor Goes Live (3)
My trading fund has finally arrived. The new metatrader account is now ‘live’ and ready for trading. I will be trading with mini lot sizes using a starting fund of just over $1000. The EA will be applied to 5 different markets, and hopefully along with the money management algorithm, it can grow to a bigger account size.
$1000 Trading Experiment
Let's be frank, my EA trading system is not a winning machine, but I think it has a good enough win-rate. Since this is my first EA, I will continue to monitor its performance in real time, but will not consider to override the system decisions. Most importantly, I still have the choice to stop the system from running when I think it is underperforming or not suitable for use. I believe I know its potential and I hope I can make the most of out it. I will sort all the trading results into My Trade History page for progress/performance reviews.
Related Post:
Get to Know My Own Trading System (1)
Adding Money Management Algorithm In My Expert Advisor (2)
$1000 Trading Experiment
Let's be frank, my EA trading system is not a winning machine, but I think it has a good enough win-rate. Since this is my first EA, I will continue to monitor its performance in real time, but will not consider to override the system decisions. Most importantly, I still have the choice to stop the system from running when I think it is underperforming or not suitable for use. I believe I know its potential and I hope I can make the most of out it. I will sort all the trading results into My Trade History page for progress/performance reviews.
Related Post:
Get to Know My Own Trading System (1)
Adding Money Management Algorithm In My Expert Advisor (2)
Monday, November 19, 2007
Top 5 Reasons for Using Mechanical Trading System
I developed my first mechanical system about three weeks ago. And this system of mine is about to go live this week on a real money account. Here are at least 5 reasons to justify my switchover from discretionary to mechanical trading:
#1 - Well-defined system behaviour
The system will be executing a predefined trading plan by following every trading rules which I design, covering every situation from entry to exit and position sizing.
#2 - Useful backtesting
No one will ever build a mechanical system that will thrive in every market conditions. Through 'honest' backtesting, you are able to learn more about the strength and weakness of your own trading system. In my opinion, it is important to know why and when your system fails. By doing so, you gain an edge in trading by understanding the market behaviour.
#3 - Consistent execution
No more missed trading opportunities. The system will be able to interpret market behavior accurately and to execute every trades without variation plus around the clock 24/5.
#4 - Forced discipline
No more overtrading. No more revenge trading. Traders will no longer risk too much on one particular trade setup. Traders would have realised that many perfect trade setups could still result in losing trades (from the results of backtesting).
#5 - Stress-free trading
No more emotions involved in trading - fear, greed, anger, pain, elation are unnecessary. Be confidence by trusting your own trading system. Reap more benefits and enjoy trading ever since.
#1 - Well-defined system behaviour
The system will be executing a predefined trading plan by following every trading rules which I design, covering every situation from entry to exit and position sizing.
#2 - Useful backtesting
No one will ever build a mechanical system that will thrive in every market conditions. Through 'honest' backtesting, you are able to learn more about the strength and weakness of your own trading system. In my opinion, it is important to know why and when your system fails. By doing so, you gain an edge in trading by understanding the market behaviour.
#3 - Consistent execution
No more missed trading opportunities. The system will be able to interpret market behavior accurately and to execute every trades without variation plus around the clock 24/5.
#4 - Forced discipline
No more overtrading. No more revenge trading. Traders will no longer risk too much on one particular trade setup. Traders would have realised that many perfect trade setups could still result in losing trades (from the results of backtesting).
#5 - Stress-free trading
No more emotions involved in trading - fear, greed, anger, pain, elation are unnecessary. Be confidence by trusting your own trading system. Reap more benefits and enjoy trading ever since.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Back In Action
I had a trading plan and it nearly paid off big. It was a wild action day, but still ended the day with some profits by simply adhering to the signals and rules accordingly. The new forex killer software interface looks good together with the improved functionalities and signal algorithms - now include both short term and long term technical triggers.
Meanwhile, I will start trading with my own EA, hopefully by next week, along with other tools. I have done more live testing these days and it looks promising.
Meanwhile, I will start trading with my own EA, hopefully by next week, along with other tools. I have done more live testing these days and it looks promising.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
One-Week Hiatus
My job load has eased. My home internet connection is now working normally. Here is an update with regard to my trading activities for the past seven days:
Discretionary trading = none
I have temporarily stopped discretionary trading . I found myself less and less time to watch the markets these days due to my increasing work loads and responsibilities.
Auto trading (expert advisor) = none
The system was meant to go live last week. The new metatrader account is still waiting for my fund to arrive.
Autopilot (proprietary software) trial testing = none
I just received a new updated version of forex killer software (2.14) with improved features and signal generating algorithms. I will conduct more scenarios testing soon.
Everything appears to return to normality, I should be happily looking forward to new challenges ahead.
Discretionary trading = none
I have temporarily stopped discretionary trading . I found myself less and less time to watch the markets these days due to my increasing work loads and responsibilities.
Auto trading (expert advisor) = none
The system was meant to go live last week. The new metatrader account is still waiting for my fund to arrive.
Autopilot (proprietary software) trial testing = none
I just received a new updated version of forex killer software (2.14) with improved features and signal generating algorithms. I will conduct more scenarios testing soon.
Everything appears to return to normality, I should be happily looking forward to new challenges ahead.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
A New Domain Name, A New Challenge
Today is a record-breaking day for the US dollar simply for the wrong reason. In my opinion, it is usually a tough trading time when market is breaking new high or near record high. Price swing actions are beyond the rationality and the logic of technical analysis.
Scoutforex dot com
Today also marks the first day of a new domain name for this site. And I have to put this statement down after almost 3 years of trying. There is definitely no easy way and surefire success in the field of forex trading. But, I am going to work harder on trying. I think I have seen enough "actions" in the forex market as well as its constantly-changing market behaviour in relation to both technical and fundamental developments . My immediate next step will be adopting a fully-mechanical approach in dealing with the market. This includes finding or even developing for myself a suite of intelligent diagnostic tools and autopilot trading systems. And most importantly, I am up for the task.
If you are re looking for a little more information about me, go here.
Scoutforex dot com
Today also marks the first day of a new domain name for this site. And I have to put this statement down after almost 3 years of trying. There is definitely no easy way and surefire success in the field of forex trading. But, I am going to work harder on trying. I think I have seen enough "actions" in the forex market as well as its constantly-changing market behaviour in relation to both technical and fundamental developments . My immediate next step will be adopting a fully-mechanical approach in dealing with the market. This includes finding or even developing for myself a suite of intelligent diagnostic tools and autopilot trading systems. And most importantly, I am up for the task.
If you are re looking for a little more information about me, go here.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Revamp of the Leaderboard on Zulutrade (1)
During the last month of live testing, I found out that many systems on the Zulutrade are basically unsustainable and unrealistic, due to the fact that the margin level which imposed on a subscriber account is simply too high (even for a large account size) as a result of opening many trade positions by the same signal provider at any given time. The problem is exacerbated further when the account is in the drawdown mode.
Finally, Zulutrade has taken its step in correcting the situation:
Finally, Zulutrade has taken its step in correcting the situation:
Most forex sites that track systems performance will show you the best performing systems near the top. But usually this does not take into account how feasible this performance is in reality. For example, when a system opens more and more trades without first closing the previous ones, your account needs to have a lot of available margin (funds) to be able to open the new positions as they come.
But in reality, your account might be unable to open many positions at the same time due to margin requirements.
Our proprietary ZuluRank system takes this into consideration, together with many other factors like maturity (how long a system has been running for), exposure (how many positions might be open at the same time) and drawdown (how many ups and downs the system has experienced) in order to provide you with an easy way of viewing the systems that are good performers and feasible trading strategies.
The new leaderboard actually confirms my watchlist and top picks all this long. Coming soon, I will be concentrating my efforts on evaluating these new system performers.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Progressive Learning via Blogging
I learnt a lot of useful things from my unusual blogging routine last month. Rather than blogging about my repeatable forex trades, I tried to deliver something else - something that my site visitors wish to find out about - and in the same time, to realise the monetization potential of my blog.During the whole process, I managed to deliver some contents based on my experience in the field of forex trading. Not knowing that the process has actually helped me achieve and realise some of my other true goals, besides the blog monetization goal as detailed in my previous post. Below are some other positive outcomes I gained from the whole experience:
Increased site traffics
By delivering new contents on this site, I managed to increase the exposure of this blog by bringing in more new site visitors and hence an improvement in alexa traffic ranking recently.
Self-learning
Mainly in the field of forex trading. I did my own research and learnt more about automated trading, signal providing service, other forex systems, expert advisors, and etc.
New perception in forex trading
I am a discretionary trader. Forex trading will always be my true passion. And now I believe mechanical, autopilot trading is my real chance for scoring great trading success. Very soon, I will be trading live with my own mechanical system.
New challenge
This blog could be unique in a way that it combines online monetization and forex trading. When on 'Autopilot', the sky is the limit. (So, watch out, JohnChow, it could all happen in a year or 5 years before catching you up, it does not matter).
In summary, this blogging 'business' has somehow renewed my faith in forex trading by giving me new ideas and inspirations. And now I have more focussed goals than never before.
October 07 Blog Income Report
Last month, I am running a case study to examine if my personal trading blog can make money via affiliate programs by giving them my personal reviews. Here are the results so far.Total Blog Income For October 2007: $302.94
- Affiliate Commissions: $269.48
- Google Adsense: $19.96
- Text Link Ads: $13.50
On second thought, there is actually more (important) positive outcomes from this monetised-blogging exercise. I shall lay out more in the next post.
Every giant leap starts with tiny running steps.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Trend Surfing and Playing It Safe
It's official. Hector has made gains of over 300 pips in the month of October by playing it safe. Make sure you check out his training course and offers while last. (Update: Offer has ended.)
'Jobs' Done by Forex Killer
Today is the job report day (non-farm payroll Nov 07) for both US and Canada. It is the most important economic event of the month.
Today's price action (i.e strength begets strength) has played right into the strength of my latest software companion.
First, let's look at the USD/CAD. Straightforwardly, the CA job report favoured the sell signal issued by the forex killer software with a 100-pip move.
For GBP/USD, it's slightly tricky as the US job report came out strong and immediately against the system's buy signal. However, the market was resilient and quickly bounced off from the low and it scored another 60 pips at the end.
Tony Juste at FXstreet explained today's extraordinary NFP reaction in his weblog:
Related posts:
How to Cope With Price Volatility and News Event
Trading the News via Forex Killer
Today's price action (i.e strength begets strength) has played right into the strength of my latest software companion.
First, let's look at the USD/CAD. Straightforwardly, the CA job report favoured the sell signal issued by the forex killer software with a 100-pip move.
For GBP/USD, it's slightly tricky as the US job report came out strong and immediately against the system's buy signal. However, the market was resilient and quickly bounced off from the low and it scored another 60 pips at the end.
Tony Juste at FXstreet explained today's extraordinary NFP reaction in his weblog:
... is a clear example of what momentum trading means. We should've expected a good USD behaviour today, and indeed the initial reaction pointed in that direction, but at this very moment, what we see is not more and not less than just a poor soul (USD) left at the mercy of his enemies.So the dollar woes continue..but it was a job well done by the forex killer signal software.
Related posts:
How to Cope With Price Volatility and News Event
Trading the News via Forex Killer
Limit Your Trading Losses on fx-millionaire (2)
On 24th October, I did my my first review on fx-millionaire of Zulutrade and I wrote:
1st trade drawdown -278 (less than 300 pips) = Win +87 pips
2nd trade drawndow -490 (more than 300 pips) = Lose -486 pips
3rd trade drawdown - 326 (more than 300 pips) = Lose -243 pips
I am 100% right on my analysis. So, set your stop wisely.
Meanwhile, there are some serious shake out in the leader board. Unfortunately, Nirvana has fallen from its grace. No matter how good is your entry system, you still need a exit strategy to protect your capital. Always expect the unexpected.
On its proven track record and given the extreme price volatility of this currency pair, I would assume that a position would be beyond repair only if with a drawdown of over 300+ pips.Since then, 3 trades have been completed (as I only allowed one trade at a time).
1st trade drawdown -278 (less than 300 pips) = Win +87 pips
2nd trade drawndow -490 (more than 300 pips) = Lose -486 pips
3rd trade drawdown - 326 (more than 300 pips) = Lose -243 pips
I am 100% right on my analysis. So, set your stop wisely.
Meanwhile, there are some serious shake out in the leader board. Unfortunately, Nirvana has fallen from its grace. No matter how good is your entry system, you still need a exit strategy to protect your capital. Always expect the unexpected.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Finding the Best Expert Advisors
It was my intention to find out more about the performance of some well-known EAs out there. But, thanks to CK. He is already undertaking some serious foward-testing and generating live trading statements from them.
Finding the Best Expert Advisor
Finding Profitable EA Systems (1)
Top 5 Reasons for Using Mechanical Trading System
My Expert Advisor Goes Live (3)
Finding the Best Expert Advisor
...for a few months now, i’ve been actively exploring into this area… searching for reliable Expert Advisors, testing them out by back-testing and, most importantly, forward-testing. forward-testing is the act of running the automated trading system/strategy live, but trading on a paper/demo account that some brokers provide. forward-testing gives the investor a good feel of how the Expert Advisor trades and reacts (or not) in different market conditions. forward-testing is KEY in determining if an Expert Advisor is good enough to trade with real money. it’s as close as you can get to trading live.Portfolio of Expert Advisors.... Will It Work?
...no -one will ever build an EA that will be suitable for every set of trading conditions. I have worked in currency trading at a few of the bigger banks, and in my experience most banks that run quant models will have 3 models, a trending model, a mean reversion model and a carry trade model. I guess the trick is in how they interact with each other and how you balance the differing signals.Related posts:
Finding Profitable EA Systems (1)
Top 5 Reasons for Using Mechanical Trading System
My Expert Advisor Goes Live (3)
Adding Money Management Algorithm In My Expert Advisor (2)
I made good progress, today. I have opened a live metatrader account and am in the final stage of backtesting my EA using the history data of a live account.
I have also included an algorithm for risk and money management. Basically, the algorithm will help me decide on the trading lot size, which is calculated based on the account balance. As my trading account grows, so does the number of lots I trade. I have also added a risk control percentage which set the level of risk I willing to take on a single trade.
To include this money/risk management feature, the EA needs to overcome OrderSend error 131. The execution error occurs when an invalid volume(lot size) is being chosen for entering a trade. This is because the trading platform only allows trade size in the step of 0.1 (in the case of mini lots) or 0.01 (in the case of micro lots). 1 being the full lot size.
So, the trick is to use NormaliseDouble function to round up the lot size to 1 decimal point, so to comply with the step size of 0.1.
The checklist is complete, I think.
Related post:
Get to Know My Own Trading System (1)
I have also included an algorithm for risk and money management. Basically, the algorithm will help me decide on the trading lot size, which is calculated based on the account balance. As my trading account grows, so does the number of lots I trade. I have also added a risk control percentage which set the level of risk I willing to take on a single trade.
To include this money/risk management feature, the EA needs to overcome OrderSend error 131. The execution error occurs when an invalid volume(lot size) is being chosen for entering a trade. This is because the trading platform only allows trade size in the step of 0.1 (in the case of mini lots) or 0.01 (in the case of micro lots). 1 being the full lot size.
So, the trick is to use NormaliseDouble function to round up the lot size to 1 decimal point, so to comply with the step size of 0.1.
The checklist is complete, I think.
Related post:
Get to Know My Own Trading System (1)
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